Boris Johnson on course for major victory in British general election, pollsters predict
- British PM likely to win majority of 68 in parliament, according to YouGov, which accurately projected results in 2017
- That would be best result for Tories since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is on course to win a majority of 68 in parliament at the December 12 election, according to a model from pollsters YouGov that accurately predicted the results of the 2017 election.
Johnson has pledged to deliver Brexit by January 31 if he wins the election after nearly four years of political crisis that has shocked allies of what was once considered one of the pillars of Western economic and political stability.
His Conservative Party could win 359 seats out of 650, up from 317 in the 2017 general election and the best result for the party since Margaret Thatcher’s 1987 victory, according to the YouGov model, called Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification – or ‘MRP’ for short.
“Our first MRP model projection for the 2019 election suggests that this time round the Conservatives are set for a majority,” said Anthony Wells, director of political and social research at YouGov.
“The swing to the Conservative party is bigger in areas that voted to Leave in 2016, with the bulk of the projected Tory gains coming in the North and the urban West Midlands, as well as former mining seats in the East Midlands.”
The Labour Party is on track to secure 211 seats, down from 262, according to the model. The SNP were on 43, the Lib Dems on 13 and the Brexit Party winning no seats.