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Agence France-Presse

The phenomenon El Nino has arrived, the US weather agency said on Thursday, and scientists expect the pattern synonymous with droughts, floods and soaring temperatures will intensify into the end of the year, potentially to historic strength.
El Nino is a natural climate occurrence that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds and rainfall patterns and erratic weather.
Scientists fear it will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels, while amping up weather extremes.
“El Nino is here, and it could be one for the history books,” said meteorologist Haley Thiem in an explainer video from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
In its latest advisory, scientists at NOAA said there is a 63 per cent chance “of a very strong El Nino during November-January that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950”.
Every El Nino is different, but major events often follow familiar patterns. This includes drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupted monsoons in India, and shifting rainfall throughout the tropics.

It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
El Nino tends to peak late in the year but heat in the oceans releases more slowly into the atmosphere, pushing up global temperatures the following year.
In response to the forecast, Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists said “the combination of fossil fuel-caused climate change and a potential super El Nino event makes a terrible team”, saying it could “easily” push global temperatures to record levels.
“While El Nino is a naturally occurring phenomenon, there is evidence that fossil fuel-caused climate change is making El Nino events more intense,” he said in a statement.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, said for millions of people across the globe “it’s not just another weather forecast” but a “deadly siren to be feared”.
“It means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again.”

Governments across the dry countries of Central America have raised alert levels over El Nino.
In that region known as the “Dry Corridor” – including parts of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua – El Nino’s return has triggered fears of drought and stoked concerns of famine.
The Guatemalan government, for example, says it has 1.1 million rations ready to distribute in the face of a food security emergency.
In East Africa, Adow said the extremes are likely to strike communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years.
Predictions from elsewhere in the world mirror those of NOAA, anticipating a particularly strong El Nino.
“The odds are strongly in favour of a moderate to strong, or probably strong to record-breaking, event at this stage,” said Carlo Buontempo, the director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change service.
Earlier this month, UN chief Antonio Guterres urged the world to treat the potentially intense incoming weather “as the urgent climate warning it is”.
“El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.
“The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all.”


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Extreme weather

El Nino is back – and it could be ‘one for the history books’

A firefighter monitors flames caused by the Hughes Fire in California, in January 2025. Scientists fear El Nino will exacerbate the heat of a planet already warming from burning fossil fuels. Photo: AP

A girl stands next to a car buried in mud after flash floods in the Kenyan village of Kamuchiri in April 2024, during a wet season made worse by El Nino. Photo: AFP

A farmer sprays fertiliser at a paddy field in West Java on June 3, as the Indonesian government urged farmers to immediately replant their plots in view of a possible prolonged dry spell linked to El Nino. Photo: Reuters

‘On our doorstep’: UN warns world to prepare for El Nino extreme weather

A man drags a traditional boat across a dried-up channel in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. The UN has warned countries to prepare for severe droughts. Photo: AFP

WMO chief Celeste Saulo. Photo: EPA

A firefighter battles the 2025 Canyon Fire in Hasley Canyon, California. Photo: AP

Southeast Asia warned of ‘Godzilla El Nino’ whiplash threatening drought, floods, haze

A man shields his face from the sunlight as he leaves a train station in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 29. Photo: AFP

A farm worker sprays fertiliser on a paddy field in Malaysia. Rising heat brings more intense storms, putting pressure on drainage systems and threatening rice and palm oil production across the Asia-Pacific. Photo: EPA

Firefighters at the scene of a fire at a peatland forest in Indonesia. Southeast Asia is facing the prospect of strong El Nino conditions that could spike energy demand, sap hydropower and damage crops. Photo: AFP

Young girls cool off on a fountain next to a park in Manila, the Philippines, on April 9. Recent geopolitical tensions have left some Southeast Asian governments less able to absorb climate shocks. Photo: AFP

Asia braces for food shortages as ‘super El Nino’, Iran war effects collide

Women sit and eat rice noodles on the sidewalk in Hanoi, Vietnam, on April 14. Photo: AFP

A farmer sprays pesticide over a field of vegetables on the outskirts of Lahore, Pakistan, on Sunday. Photo: AFP

People buy food at a market in Bangkok, Thailand, on April 8. Higher fertiliser and energy prices are hitting food production costs. Photo: EPA

US dollar banknotes. Higher US-dollar-denominated crude prices have increased demand for American currency. Photo: dpa

A palm oil plantation is seen in February next to a forest in Indonesia’s Central Kalimantan province. Photo: AFP

News

World

The weather event – which can bring droughts, floods and record temperatures – has officially arrived, and could grow to peak strength


The weather event – which can bring droughts, floods and record temperatures – has officially arrived, and could grow to peak strength.


El Nino is back – and it could be ‘one for the history books’

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The weather event – which can bring droughts, floods and record temperatures – has officially arrived, and could grow to peak strength

The weather event – which can bring droughts, floods and record temperatures – has officially arrived, and could grow to peak strength