bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

articlePageQuery

filter

article

articleBaseAdvertisingInfoArticle

articleListArticle

articleSeoArticle

helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle

hooksArticleAcknowledgementGateOverlayArticle

hooksTrackPageViewArticle

hooksContentInterestArticle

articleLinkingDataContent

hooksAmpRedirectArticle

articleSchemaContent

liveArticle

advertZone

sentiment

contentLock

topics

types

sections

moreOnThisArticles

urlAlias

commentCount

authorLocations

authors

corrections

sponsorType

displaySlideShow

multimediaEmbed

printHeadline

seriesContainer

socialHeadline

headline

flag

firstTopic

glossary

flattenTypeIds

publishedDate

additionalInfoBoxes

images

image

relatedLinks

relatedNewsletters

__typename

createdDate

sponsor

paywallTypes

pdfFiles

seriesReverseOrder

series

disableOffPlatformContent

published

updatedDate

summary

subHeadline

body

keywords

readingTime

customTimezone

liveContents

Bloomberg

The world may have already missed its chance to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to two new studies in Nature Climate Change.
The Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, with 196 countries agreeing to rein in greenhouse gas emissions to keep the global average temperature increase to “well below” 2 degrees and ideally cap it at 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times.
The new analyses showed the world would surpass the latter, underscoring the urgent need to cut carbon emissions.
“Every increment of warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius means worse extremes,” said Alex Cannon, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, and author of one of the studies. “If we continue warming the atmosphere, consequences will be greater.”

In 2024, global temperatures reached 1.5 degrees for the entire year, the first time it has happened in recorded history.
It was a stark departure from previous projections: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report published just a year earlier suggested that temperatures would reach 1.5 degrees in the early 2030s if emissions were not cut.
The breach left scientists wondering: “is this a sign? Are these short-term exceedances above that level indicative of us actually reaching that target sooner than we expected?” said Cannon.
The reason for those questions because the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-degree threshold was not focused on daily or even yearly temperatures. Instead, it was based on a 20-year retrospective average, which means the world will not know it has hit 1.5 degrees until after the fact.
The two new studies attempt to get around that by using climate models to look ahead based on current data to see if we have already entered a 20-year period above 1.5 degrees.
Cannon’s study, and a separate study led by Emanuele Bevacqua, a climate scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Germany, both suggest that was exactly what has happened.


“I pronounce the 1.5C target mostly dead,” Kate Marvel, a research physicist with Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies who was not part of either study, said in an email. “Yes, a single year over 1.5C doesn’t necessarily mean the average temperature over the next 20-year period is going to be 1.5C,” she said, “but these papers make a pretty compelling case that in models, the first single year above 1.5C is likely to fall within that 20-year period”.
The findings are part of a growing body of research warning the world that its climate targets are increasingly out of reach and that heating is accelerating. In fact, this January was the hottest on record despite the cooling influence of an emerging La Niña.
The new studies put the odds of being in the midst of a 20-year period where the Earth breaches 1.5 degrees to be somewhere between “likely” and “virtually certain”. Despite that, both Cannon and Bevacqua agree that heating can be arrested by drastically reducing fossil fuel use.
But the chance of that happening is shrinking given the Trump administration’s assault on climate action. Since taking office his administration has taken steps to increase fossil fuel production and withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. Other world leaders are reportedly considering following suit, creating headwinds for the deep emissions cuts needed.
The 1.5-degree threshold was included in the Paris Agreement largely at the behest of small island developing states, many of which would be wiped off the map by sea level rise should the planet heat beyond it. More recent research has found that even at 1.5 degrees, small island developing states risk flooding from sea level rise.
“Even if we reach the 1.5-degree global warming level threshold in the future, we should still aim to not exceed this too much or even make sure that this is our temporary exceedance so that we can stabilise the temperature and at some point cool the temperature,” said Bevacqua.
That has been a rallying cry for years. The world, though, has failed to heed it as carbon pollution has continued to climb to record highs.
“Rapid near-term emissions cuts can limit peak warming and reduce climate risks,” said Marvel. “Whether or not that merits action is not (just) for scientists to decide.”
Additional reporting by Agence France-Presse


Chinese basin may have been a refuge during largest mass extinction. Do we need another?

Statue of Liberty, Big Ben models in underwater art show to raise climate change awareness

Chinese economist calls for bold action to fill climate leadership vacuum

Hot weather is bad for your heart, Australian study finds

Climate change

‘Virtually certain’ Earth has already breached 1.5-degree warming threshold

The Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels is a small-sounding number with big implications for life on Earth. File photo: Nasa via AP

Steam rises from the coal-fired power plant in Germany. File photo: AP

China has met most of its 5-year goals. It hasn’t done so well on emissions

The Tsinghua University researchers said China had become a world leader in green energy development. Photo: Xinhua

Trump’s ‘drill, baby, drill’ vision adds to the global climate nightmare

The CHS oil refinery silhouetted against the setting sun on September 28 in McPherson, Kansas. Photo: AP

Australia plans ‘long-term managed retreat’ from Cocos Islands amid rising seas

A beach on Cocos Islands is seen strewn with flotsam, jetsam and plastic debris. Photo: University of Tasmania/AFP

With deforestation rising, is Indonesia missing the forest for the trees?

An aerial photo taken in December shows visible deforestation for nickel mining in Indonesia’s Raja Ampat Islands. Photo: Auriga Nusantara

An aerial view of buildings under construction at Nusantara, Indonesia’s future capital city, in East Kalimantan. Photo: AFP

Indonesia’s future Presidential Palace is seen in Nusantara in July last year. Photo: AFP

Visible deforestation is seen in a nickel mining area in Indonesia’s Raja Ampat Islands in December. Photo: Auriga Nusantara

News

World

Last year’s record-breaking temperatures could be a sign that the world was entering a new era of global warming


Last year’s record-breaking temperatures could be a sign that the world was entering a new era of global warming.
