Odds stacked against Zimbabwe opposition as election nears, integrity of contest called in to question

A deeply divided opposition, hobbled by a slew of court cases, has struggled to capitalise on public outrage about the near-collapse of government services, triple-digit inflation and rampant poverty. That’s put octogenarian President Emmerson Mnangagwa in pole position to win the August 23 vote.

The integrity of the contest has been called into question, with Amnesty International accusing the government of undermining civil liberties over the past five years, helping entrench the incumbent’s dominance. The watchdog also criticised Zimbabwe’s so-called Patriotic Bill that came into force last month and makes it illegal to wilfully injure the nation’s sovereignty and national interests, saying it further criminalises dissent.

“The odds are stacked against the opposition,” the Institute for Security Studies, a Pretoria-based think tank, said in a research note. The government has “weaponised the law,” used nonviolent coercion to intimidate people into supporting it and taken credit for government-funded programmes, it said.

Winning a tainted election may derail efforts by Mnangagwa, who’s held power since long-time ruler Robert Mugabe was ousted in a 2017 coup, to restructure the nation’s US$18 billion of debt arrears. Creditors including the African Development Bank have warned that any deal would be contingent on a credible contest.