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Agence France-Presse

US President Donald Trump declined on Sunday to rule out the possibility that the United States might enter a recession this year.
“I hate to predict things like that,” he told a Fox News interviewer when asked directly about a possible recession in 2025.
“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big – we’re bringing wealth back to America,” he said, adding: “It takes a little time”.
But Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, was more definitive when asked Sunday about the possibility of a recession.

“Absolutely not,” he told NBC’s Meet the Press when asked whether Americans should brace for a downturn.
Trump’s on-again, off-again tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and others have left the US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure what the year might bring.
Stock markets just ended their worst week since the November election.
Measures of consumer confidence are down, as shoppers – already battered by years of inflation – brace for the higher prices that tariffs can bring.
And widespread government lay-offs being engineered by Trump’s billionaire adviser Elon Musk add further concern.
Some signs are mixed.


A widely watched Atlanta Federal Reserve index now predicts a 2.4 per cent contraction of real GDP growth in the year’s first quarter, which would be the worst result since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Much of the uncertainty stems from Trump’s shifting tariff policy- effective dates have changed, as have the sectors being targeted – as businesses and investors try to puzzle out what will come next.
Kevin Hassett, Trump’s chief economic adviser, was asked on ABC whether tariffs were primarily temporary or might become permanent.
Hassett said that depended on the behaviour of the countries targeted. If they failed to respond positively, he said, the result could be a “new equilibrium” of continuing tariffs.
The administration has insisted that while the economy will pass through a possibly bumpy “transition”, things are headed in a positive direction.
In his address to Congress on Tuesday, Trump told Americans to expect “a little disturbance” as tariffs take hold, while adding: “We’re OK with that. It won’t be much.”




And his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned of a “detox period” as the economy cuts government spending.
Given the uncertainties, economists have been wary of making firm predictions.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, citing Trump’s policies, have raised their odds of a recession over the next 12 months from 15 per cent to 20 per cent.
And Morgan Stanley predicted “softer growth this year” than earlier expected.
Recessions are generally defined as two consecutive quarters of weak or negative GDP growth.
The US was briefly in recession in early 2020 as the Covid pandemic spread. Millions of people lost jobs.


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Donald Trump

Trump declines to rule out a 2025 US recession

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One. Photo: Reuters

US President Donald Trump, flanked by US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent and White House AI and cryptocurrency tsar David Sacks. Photo: AFP

‘All set’: Trump goes ahead with additional 10% tariffs on China imports

US President Donald Trump’s playbook has prompted a host of foreign leaders to descend on Washington seeking clemency, which plays well with his domestic base. Photo: Getty Images/TNS

Trump attends a bilateral meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping during the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, on June 29, 2019. Photo: Reuters

US House revives bipartisan bill to tackle ‘trade crimes’ committed by Chinese companies

Some 30 members of the US House of Representatives are sponsoring the legislation. Photo: AP

US Senate confirms Jamieson Greer as Trump’s top trade negotiator as battles loom

Jamieson Greer appears before the Senate Committee on Finance for his pending confirmation on Capitol Hill on February 6. Photo: AP

Trump says 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada imports to start on Tuesday

US President Donald Trump in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington on Monday. Photo: EPA-EFE

Ambassador Bridge: a border crossing between Windsor, Ontario in Canada, and Detroit, Michigan on the US side. Photo: AFP

Trump weighs agriculture carveouts to Canada, Mexico tariffs

Workers harvest cabbage in Holtville, California, on Wednesday. Photo: AP

US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins responds to questions from the media outside the White House in February. Photo: EPA-EFE

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Trump’s tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico have left US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure of future


Trump’s tariff threats against China, Canada and Mexico have left US financial markets in turmoil and consumers unsure of future.
