appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Teresa Elena Frontado

With Congress again failing to curb US President Donald Trump’s authority over Cuba, the centre of gravity in US policy towards the island is shifting decisively back to the White House – and to a narrower, more consequential question: what comes next?
Tuesday’s 51-47 Senate vote to block a Democratic-led war powers resolution on Cuba does not change policy on its own. It was widely expected, reflecting a long-standing pattern in which Congress has struggled to assert its war powers authority since the Vietnam war.
But the outcome reinforces a clear reality: Trump retains wide latitude to escalate economic or military pressure on Havana, with little immediate risk of congressional constraint.
Yet the administration’s Cuba strategy seems to be entering a more complex phase, with most tools of pressure already in play but no clear path to an outcome.
“The signals over the past few weeks have been uneven, to put it mildly. At this point, it’s very hard to tell where this is going,” said Michael Bustamante, director of Cuban Studies at the University of Miami. “I feel like we’re in a kind of stalemate.”


Over the past several months, Washington has steadily tightened its campaign against Cuba, combining an energy blockade with broader sanctions and stepped-up maritime enforcement. The measures have disrupted oil flows – particularly from Venezuela – and contributed to worsening power outages, rising food prices and strain on basic services across the island.
US officials argue that this “maximum force” strategy is designed to force structural change that will generate economic liberalisation, the release of political prisoners and limits on foreign security ties.
But the Cuban government has shown little sign of yielding on those core demands.
President Miguel Diaz-Canel has repeatedly ruled out political concessions, insisting sovereignty and the country’s system of governance are non-negotiable – even as his administration has quietly explored economic arrangements to ease the crisis.
“Cubans are very nationalistic and its current leaders have advanced in a system that has been in confrontation with the United States for 67 years,” said Cuba expert and American University professor William Leogrande. “If anything, US pressure generates a ‘rally ‘round the flag’ effect, making the leadership more cohesive rather than less.”
Stalemate set to continue for time being
The mismatch between US demands and Cuban red lines is raising questions about how much additional leverage Washington can realistically generate without changing tactics, at a time when it’s also dealing with the prospect of a protracted war in the Middle East.
“It’s difficult to imagine a dramatic escalation – particularly military action – at this moment, not least because the administration already has its hands full with Iran,” Bustamante said.
The administration has not fully abandoned negotiations. In April, senior US officials met Cuban counterparts in Havana to discuss a broad set of issues, including compensation claims, political prisoners, economic reforms and national security concerns tied to foreign actors on the island.
At the time, US officials suggested Cuba had a “small window” to reach a deal.
But recent comments from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicate that the window may be narrowing.
Rubio’s assertion this week that meaningful reform is “impossible” under the current leadership marks a harder turn in tone, highlighting growing impatience within the administration about the pace and limits of engagement.
If that assessment hardens into policy, it could shift the US away from conditional negotiation towards a strategy more explicitly aimed at forcing political change.
At the same time, the administration has increased its strategic signalling.

The Pentagon has expanded its operational focus on the Caribbean, boosting naval deployments and interdiction efforts as part of a broader emphasis on the western hemisphere.
Trump has also kept the possibility of military action rhetorically alive, framing Cuba as a potential next front after Iran.
“Sometimes you have to use the military, and Cuba is next,” Trump said at a conference in Miami last month, repeating twice during his speech: “Next is Cuba”.
Yet officials and lawmakers alike acknowledge that the United States is not currently engaged in active hostilities with Cuba – a distinction Republicans used to justify blocking the Senate resolution.
That gap between rhetoric and action leaves open a wide spectrum of possible next steps, from incremental tightening of sanctions to more disruptive measures targeting shipping, infrastructure or financial flows.
“It would be unprecedented for this level of pressure to produce major political concessions,” Bustamante said. “It’s just not in the Cuban government’s DNA to hand over a clear ‘win’ of that kind.”
China rallies behind Cuba as crisis deepens
Cuba’s response has been shaped in part by its external relationships.
Havana has sought to cushion the impact of US pressure by deepening ties with partners, including Russia, which has continued to supply oil shipments, and by pursuing domestic energy initiatives to offset shortages, particularly through Chinese-financed solar energy parks
China has voiced support for Cuba, saying it is willing to “work with the international community to firmly support” the island, while also stepping up material assistance. Beijing said in January it would send 60,000 tonnes of rice and US$80 million in emergency aid.
US officials, meanwhile, have increasingly framed Cuba as a national security concern, pointing to the presence – or potential presence – of foreign intelligence and military-linked activity on the island.
That framing raises the stakes of the confrontation, embedding it within a broader geopolitical context that extends beyond bilateral tensions.
For lawmakers, Tuesday’s vote also underscores the limited tools available to shape foreign policy in the current US political environment.
Democrats, led by Senator Tim Kaine and others, have used repeated war powers resolutions to force debate and highlight the humanitarian consequences of US policy, but without Republican support, those efforts have consistently fallen short.
The result is a policy trajectory driven largely by executive decision-making – at a time when the risks are becoming more layered.

For the administration, the challenge is no longer simply applying pressure but converting it into outcomes without triggering unintended escalation or deepening humanitarian fallout.
“The US still has tools it hasn’t used, but those come with risks – including greater instability and the possibility of mass migration – without necessarily forcing the Cuban government to fold,” Bustamante said.
For Cuba, the calculation is equally stark: whether to absorb further economic pain in defence of political continuity, or to test the limits of negotiation under increasingly unfavourable conditions.
For now, both sides appear locked in place – leaving US policy towards Cuba at a point where the next move may matter far more than the last.
“If the two sides focus on economic issues, which appear to be high on the US agenda, just as they have been in Venezuela, a deal may be possible,” wrote Leogrande. “That would be a good outcome for both sides, but it would fall short of Cuban-American demands for regime change.
“Realistically, however, a deadlock is more likely than a deal.”


Beijing threatens ‘serious consequences’ after Panama lawmakers support Taiwan

J.D. Vance group courted Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro over anti-China rare earth deal: report

China rebuts top US diplomat Marco Rubio over ‘Communist Party-backed projects’ in Peru

Brazil scraps tax on small parcels as Chinese platforms lose US and EU access

China-Latin America relations

Senate vote leaves Cuba’s uncertain future at dangerous crossroads

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has repeatedly ruled out political concessions to the US, insisting sovereignty and the country’s system of governance are non-negotiable. Photo: EPA

People hold pictures of late leader Fidel Castro and his brother during celebrations in Havana to commemorate the 65th anniversary of the declaration of the Cuban Revolution’s socialist essence on April 16, 2026. Photo: AFP

A street without power during a nationwide blackout in Havana on March 22, 2026. Photo: TNS

As Trump ramps up pressure on Cuba, China has ‘very limited options’

Cuba scrambled to restore power on Monday after a nationwide blackout that hit the communist-run island just as US President Donald Trump said he expected to take it over. Photo: AFP

People walk on a street in Havana, Cuba during a total blackout on Monday. Photo: Xinhua

China to help Cuba with solar energy amid US oil blockade and total power outage

People gather during a blackout as Cuba’s national electric grid collapsed, according to the country’s grid operator, leaving about 10.9 million people without power amid a US-imposed oil blockade. Photo: Reuters 

China vows to ‘do what it can’ as US blockade leaves Cuba with just weeks of oil

China’s support comes as Cuba faces a critical fuel shortage after the United States blocked shipments of Venezuelan oil. Photo: Reuters

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said that Cuba has China’s full backing during a press briefing in Beijing on Wednesday. Photo: Kyodo

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Cuban counterpart, Bruno Rodriguez, last Thursday in Beijing. Photo: Xinhua

China keeps Cuba and Uruguay in the fold, puts Panama out in the cold

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla (left) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirm their countries’ ties in Beijing on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua

News

Diplomacy

World

Americas

China

US Democrats failed on Tuesday in another attempt to limit Donald Trump’s authority to use military force against Cuba, so what’s next?


Senate vote leaves Cuba’s uncertain future at dangerous crossroads

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}US Democrats failed on Tuesday in another attempt to limit Donald Trump’s authority to use military force against Cuba, so what’s next?

US Democrats failed on Tuesday in another attempt to limit Donald Trump’s authority to use military force against Cuba, so what’s next?