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Jevans Nyabiage

China’s trade with Africa grew by a moderate 2.7 per cent year on year in the first quarter to reach US$72.6 billion despite rising trade uncertainties from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The latest customs data shows a mixed picture, with Chinese exports to Africa climbing 11.3 per cent to US$45.92 billion, while imports from the continent fell 9.4 per cent to US$26.69 billion.
The marginal increase comes amid growing trade uncertainties following Trump’s return to protectionist policies, including “reciprocal tariffs” on select African exports ranging from 10 per cent to 50 per cent.
While the measures have been paused for 90 days, they threaten key African economies that rely heavily on the US preferential trade programme known as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).


A Chinese diplomat in Africa, however, has expressed optimism that Beijing’s duty-free plan for products from the 33 least-developed African countries will boost China-Africa trade and help the continent combat the effects of the tariffs.
“These tangible results speak loud and clear for China’s full commitment to expanding institutional openness and sharing development opportunities with Africa and the Global South,” said ambassador Hu Changchun, China’s head of mission to the African Union. He was speaking in Addis Ababa on Wednesday at a meeting attended by African Union Commission chief of staff Mohamed El-Amine Souef.
Sub-Saharan Africa geoeconomic analyst Aly-Khan Satchu said a single-digit gain against a backdrop of extreme African currency weakness and volatility in the international arena “is, counter-intuitively, a positive outcome in my view”.
Satchu said that with the tariff wars, over time, Africa-China trade would increase, leading to “increased indigenisation of Chinese trade” on the continent, reducing reliance on the US.
While the tariffs might not have a major impact on many countries in Africa, they will inflict more acute pain on others such as Lesotho and Madagascar, where textile producers rely heavily on the American preferential trade programme.
At a meeting on China’s economic and trade cooperation policies with Africa at the African Union headquarters, Hu said China would continue to work with Africa to “defend international fairness and justice” and that China was “determined to counter the unilateral bullying behaviour of the United States in abusing tariffs and undermining the multilateral trading system”.
China has been Africa’s top trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with trade exceeding US$295.56 billion in 2024, a 6 per cent increase from the previous year, according to Hu.
Charlie Robertson, an Africa-focused economist and author of The Time-Travelling Economist, said Trump’s trade wars had created an uncertain outlook for African exports to China. “But China will be very keen to switch some of its exports to Africa,” he said.
However, trade with South Africa, China’s most important trading partner on the continent, fell dramatically in the first quarter, dropping by 29.5 per cent to US$10 billion, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. This was in large part due to a 43.2 per cent decline in China’s imports from the country.
South Africa’s exports to China are mainly minerals and precious metals, including gold, platinum, diamonds, chromium ore, and iron ore. And South Africa’s imports from China include broadcasting equipment, electric batteries, computers, semiconductor devices and electrical transformers.
According to observers, South Africa had benefited in recent years as China’s relations with Australia soured, but China has resumed importing minerals and wine from Australia as those ties have improved.
Satchu said he believed “South Africa enjoyed windfall gains as China squeezed Australia, a squeeze which is easing up and probably explains the soft South African numbers”.


During last year’s Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), South African President Cyril Ramaphosa raised the issue of Africa’s trade deficit with China – an imbalance caused by importing unprocessed minerals from Africa and exporting finished products to the continent.
Like other African countries, South Africa wants to export more agricultural products, including fruit, wine, red meat, nuts, maize, soybeans and wool.
Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, said there was room for South Africa to form a more ambitious agricultural export strategy for China.
China is the leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11 per cent of global farm imports, totalling more than US$200 billion.
Nevertheless, South Africa’s appetite to export food products to China is in line with Beijing’s plan to grow imports of African agricultural products.


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Diplomacy

First quarter customs data shows Chinese exports to Africa climbed 11.3% to US$45.92 billion while imports from the continent fell 9.4%


First quarter customs data shows Chinese exports to Africa climbed 11.3% to US$45.92 billion while imports from the continent fell 9.4%.


China-Africa trade makes ‘moderate’ gains despite US tariffs, currency weakness

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}First quarter customs data shows Chinese exports to Africa climbed 11.3% to US$45.92 billion while imports from the continent fell 9.4%

First quarter customs data shows Chinese exports to Africa climbed 11.3% to US$45.92 billion while imports from the continent fell 9.4%