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Natalie Wong

Matthew Cheng

In the first of our series of previews on the five-year plan and policy address, to be announced on September 16, Natalie Wong and Matthew Cheng look at the key political issues and the city leader’s hopes for a second term.
When Hong Kong’s leader John Lee Ka-chiu steps up to the Legislative Council podium next Wednesday, he will break from decades of political tradition.
Lee’s coming policy address will summarise his four years in office while setting out what is expected to be his most ambitious and forward-looking governance agenda to date, as it will serve as an execution document to complement the city’s inaugural five-year plan to be delivered on the same day.
Observers are closely watching where the two blueprints will take Hong Kong, and whether the synergy of high-level strategic planning will be used by the 68-year-old leader to build momentum for securing a second five-year term next July.
Pressure is mounting on him to deliver on the Northern Metropolis near the Shenzhen border, with some political experts saying a key challenge is getting businesses to commit to the megaproject that could take up to 20 years to complete.
Beyond policy initiatives, they said Lee’s future in the job also hinged on issues of political accountability arising from the Tai Po fire, Hong Kong’s deadliest blaze in decades, which occurred on his watch. An independent committee’s findings are set to be published in late October, after months of evidential hearings earlier this year.
In the remaining nine months of his tenure, Lee also faces pressure to address long-standing societal problems such as housing affordability while showing how his administration will execute its expanded vision. Analysts said some quick wins would be vital.
While economic and technological developments will occupy a significant portion of the five-year plan, the South China Morning Post has learned that national security will also be a critical aspect of the blueprint, reflecting Beijing’s stance that security and economic development are mutually reinforcing – and inseparable – goals.
Caution over Northern Metropolis
Topping the consultation agenda for the five-year plan is the Northern Metropolis, which has been viewed as the mother of all engines to power Hong Kong’s economic transformation.
While the flagship project has received widespread verbal support from Hong Kong businesses, they remain cautious when it comes to making substantial investments.
The hesitation was evident when the government rolled out its first “zone development” public-private partnership pilot in the Hung Shui Kiu New Development Area. The HK$16.8 billion (US$2.1 billion) logistics and residential package was awarded to a consortium comprising five mainland Chinese state-owned and private conglomerates, alongside just one local player, Sino Land. It was one of only two bids received for the megaproject.
Jeffrey Lam Kin-fung, chairman of the board of directors of the Hung Shui Kiu Industry Park Company, said limited local participation at this stage was not surprising as Hong Kong developers’ past success was built on traditional real estate rather than tech-driven innovation.

Lam, who is also a member of the key decision-making Executive Council, argued that as the government had already established a new public-private development model after overcoming significant policy hurdles, mainland companies’ commitment could pave the way for local businesses to take part in the next stages after the primary infrastructure matures around 2028.
“One can’t say they threw out the money to ‘test the waters’, as this is serious investment,” he said. “In projects of this scale, infrastructure must take the lead. Those participating in the first stage are inevitably large corporations. Once completed, you’ll see plenty of small businesses move in.”
He added that, from his observations, companies from various countries were also keen to invest in the megaproject, citing Hong Kong’s unique role in connecting them to the vast mainland market.
Lawmaker Rock Chen Chung-nin, who also serves as an independent non-executive director at Sino Land, urged the government to attract leading technology companies, such as firms comparable to Nvidia, to establish a presence in the megaproject as a “ballast”. He said this would be essential for building an ecosystem by drawing upstream and downstream companies to the city.
He stressed that the government must deliver results in the next few years, citing a trillion Hong Kong dollars in expected investment, and called for more favourable policies, including tax incentives and lower land prices, to attract foreign businesses.
Lee’s 4 years: progress versus unfinished business
Since taking office in 2022, the former security chief, who characterised his government as “results oriented”, has fulfilled major mandates in security, including the enactment of Article 23’s Safeguarding National Security Ordinance in 2024, which had dragged on for more than two decades due to fears of renewed public backlash.
On the economic front, Hong Kong experienced a heady resurgence in initial public offerings (IPOs) of companies seeking funding and was placed second globally in a competitiveness ranking in June.
The administration also spearheaded high-profile missions to explore non-traditional markets in the Middle East and Central Asia, while rolling out measures to deepen integration with mainland China.
But there were some areas where it had been slow to act, observers said.
Lawmaker Peter Douglas Koon Ho-ming said the city’s rapidly ageing population could become a political time bomb if the problem was not comprehensively addressed, as the long-term population decline would affect residents’ healthcare and welfare, among other livelihood issues.
In 2025, about 1.78 million residents were aged 65 or older, accounting for a quarter of the total population. The figure is projected to rise to 36 per cent by 2046, a trend some scholars had previously described as alarming and unsustainable, with a shrinking labour force compounding the problem of the growing older population.
“This is a top priority … This problem will hold you back in the long run as it will affect development, when one-third of the population [is elderly],” Koon said.
“If the government does not address the issue, it will definitely be criticised … It needs to do scenario planning for what problems will arise in the worst-case situation.”
John Burns, an emeritus professor of politics and public administration at the University of Hong Kong (HKU), said the city’s economy had grown but the gains had been uneven, with some sectors, such as retail, food and beverage, and small and medium-sized enterprises, performing poorly.
Burns argued that the pace of civil service reforms was “incredibly slow” despite Lee’s campaign pledge to change the mindset across the bureaucracy.
The effectiveness of a review of the accountability system for heads of departments had yet to be seen, he noted.
Whether Lee could secure a second term would depend on Beijing’s top priority for Hong Kong over the next five years, but Lee’s performance in safeguarding national security had been outstanding from the central government’s perspective, he added.
“From the economic perspective, if we were talking about this government, the results have been mixed,” Burns said.
He also cited the Tai Po fire, which occurred under Lee’s watch. The catastrophic blaze tore through the Wang Fuk Court housing estate last November, killing 168 people and displacing about 5,000 residents.
A subsequent investigation exposed oversight failures across multiple departments, including systemic issues surrounding bid-rigging in building maintenance. The findings of an inquiry by a judge-led independent committee are set to be released in late October.

National security ‘integral part’ of 5-year plan
Despite calls from parts of the business community to shift the city’s focus towards economic growth, the SCMP has learned that national security will remain an integral part of the five-year plan, reflecting Beijing’s view of the close link between security and economic development.
This perspective aligns with commentaries reposted by the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office that described development and security as “two wings of a bird” or “two wheels of a car” – analogies that state in no uncertain terms how both are critical to the city’s progress.
The commentaries warned of persistent “severe threats” to Hong Kong, with anti-China forces devising new forms of “soft resistance”. Such forces would “use disasters” like the Tai Po fire to disrupt Hong Kong, and also “glorify violence” by presenting flowers to released political prisoners, the essays warned.

Lau Siu-kai, a consultant to the semi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank, said tackling subtle forms of “soft resistance” without inviting Western political attacks was a test of Lee’s political acumen.
“Maintaining vigilance against unconventional national security threats is important. But on an operational level, they should avoid triggering unnecessary concerns. What matters is reassuring foreign capital that Hong Kong remains an open, profitable international hub,” he said.
Lau also warned of other threats, such as cybersecurity, financial security and geopolitical tensions surrounding Hong Kong’s role as an offshore renminbi centre, amid the city’s increasingly fraught relationship with the West.
He said Beijing expected Lee to deliver the twin blueprints to help Hong Kong navigate the shifting global environment and better serve the country’s needs, and urged authorities to quickly adapt to cope with increasingly unpredictable threats.
Lau added that security was a core metric of the administration’s performance, not only for Lee’s second-term prospects, but also because Beijing viewed national security and effective governance as inextricable.
“If the government does not govern well, accumulating social grievances will be exploited to destabilise Hong Kong and fuel anti-government sentiment … That would threaten stability which Hong Kong cannot afford,” he said.


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Pressure is mounting on the leader to deliver on the Northern Metropolis near the Shenzhen border. Photo: Edmond So

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A student walks past a banner stating “National security is everyone’s responsibility”. Photo: Jelly Tse

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Experts expect John Lee’s policy address to set ambitious governance agenda on various social and economic issues, but security will underpin them all


Experts expect John Lee’s policy address to set ambitious governance agenda on various social and economic issues, but security will underpin them all.


.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Experts expect John Lee’s policy address to set ambitious governance agenda on various social and economic issues, but security will underpin them all

Experts expect John Lee’s policy address to set ambitious governance agenda on various social and economic issues, but security will underpin them all