Why Hong Kong by-election today matters: rifts in two main blocs could make localists the big winners even if their man loses

Back in June last year when former Civic Party lawmaker Ronny Tong Ka-wah triggered a by-election by resigning from Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, few anticipated the poll in the New Territories East seat would hold much significance. But a lot is at stake today as voting began this morning at 7.30am.

1. Are localists a political force to be reckoned with after the Mong Kok riot?

All eyes will be on how many votes Hong Kong Indigenous candidate Edward Leung Tin-kei will be able to reel in. Prior to the Mong Kok riot, Leung was a relative unknown but has since shot to prominence. Not only have hundreds turned up at his election rally, thousands have also begun following his group’s Facebook page, and influential opinion leaders, including 100Most magazine’s founder Lam Yat-hei, have publicly endorsed his campaign. The by-election result will be a crucial gauge of whether the Hong Kong independence movement and radical protest methods represent a minority voice in the city – as local government officials have insisted following the riot – or if they are a growing force. If the localist candidate gains a significant portion of the votes, it will likely alarm Beijing, which has labelled the rioters “separatists”.

2. Is the traditional pan-democratic camp losing its appeal?

The Civic Party’s candidate, Alvin Yeung Ngok-kiu, was seen as the hot favourite to succeed his mentor Ronny Tong Ka-wah who vacated the seat. But following the Mong Kok clashes, Yeung’s lead is less clear-cut as he has found himself caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, supporters of the riot see Yeung, a candidate supported by the pan-democratic camp, as not radical enough to effect change. On the other, critics of the violence have vented their anger at Yeung, a barrister by profession, for providing legal assistance to the alleged rioters. Some pundits believe the localist factor will dilute the traditional pan-democrat’s voter base. Even though pan-democrats secured over half of the constituency’s votes in the 2012 Legco election, repeating the same feat could prove difficult. And should Yeung fail to do so, it will be read as a signal of the camp’s waning support in the city.