Was 2024 the year Hong Kong won back mainland Chinese tourists?

The number of trips to Hong Kong by mainland Chinese visitors rose 27 per cent year on year as the 2024 tally reached 34 million, according to official figures, with observers saying the uptick is likely to continue but expressing doubt over its economic impact. Hong Kong also recorded a 48 per cent year-on-year surge in residents making trips across the border, reaching more than 93 million, over the same period. But while experts said that such growth was expected to continue, they believed it was likely to slow down this year. The Immigration Department data was based on the number of inbound trips by mainland residents using all crossings and departures by Hongkongers using all checkpoints except the airport. Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Algernon Yau Ying-wah said on Saturday that while mainlanders had changed their spending patterns, Hongkongers splashing out across the border had become a habit. “As a result of the global economic uncertainty and the changing spending patterns of consumers, we have to seek changes, know how to cope with these changes and cope with them,” he told a radio programme. “Hong Kong is in the process of economic transformation – industry players must come up with innovative and creative ways to attract consumers.” Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist with Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, said most of what mainland shoppers wanted could be bought online, meaning there was no reason for them to shop in Hong Kong, where there was no price advantage. “Would more visitors mean economic benefits, like it was in old times, given the change in consumption patterns? Could it really cancel out Hongkongers’ expenditure abroad?” he said. Ng said mainland tourists would still help to boost business for the food and drink industry. He added that goods tied to confidence in Hong Kong regulations, such as gold and healthcare products, would still perform well, but the overall economic benefit for the city was a “question mark”. He said the trend of Hongkongers heading north to spend would continue to strengthen given the significant price difference between the city and the mainland’s goods, in addition to a strong Hong Kong dollar meaning travel was relatively inexpensive. But he said the rise in such cases would not be as obvious as the past trend of “revenge trips” following the Covid-19 pandemic, but would still present challenges for the retail industry. “Mainland e-commerce platforms could be more aggressive in expanding their business in Hong Kong by offering shorter delivery times and discounts on delivery fees,” Ng said. “This could bring structural influences and competition [to local businesses].” He said there could be further waves of business closures in Hong Kong, adding that while the city’s nominal retail sales might rise due to factors such as inflation, the real figure was likely to be negative. Last month, mainland authorities relaunched a multiple-entry visa scheme for Shenzhen residents as part of efforts to bolster tourism in Hong Kong. But Ng stressed that attractive mega-events in Hong Kong were key to ensuring the visa scheme was effective, attracting visitors to travel there with ease to contribute to the local economy. Economist Simon Lee Siu-po said the multiple-entry visas could bring more mainland visitors to Hong Kong, but noted the retail sector should not expect a significant boost from the measure since the spending patterns for such travellers were weak. Travel Industry Council chairman Tommy Tam Kwong-shun also said the trend of Hongkongers travelling to the mainland was likely to slow down this year as the novelty was starting to wear off and this portion of the market was becoming saturated. “What I have heard a lot at the large-scale supermarkets is that when Hong Kong shoppers bulk purchase, there is not enough space to store things in their small flats,” he said. “Some also said while it was convenient to head to the mainland, it could still be tiring and that there are usually huge crowds before and after main holidays.” But Tam said he was hopeful that sporting events such as the National Games or large-scale concerts could bring more visitors to Hong Kong this year, and that tourists using multiple-visa entry could produce economic benefits. “When there are more people, there will be more spending,” he said, encouraging businesses to do more to attract tourists that could be promoted on their social media, helping to draw more visitors and creating a circular effect.

Was 2024 the year Hong Kong won back mainland Chinese tourists?

Number of trips to Hong Kong by mainland Chinese visitors rose 27 per cent year on year after tally for 2024 reached 34 million