Are AI-based forecasts changing the way Hong Kong’s typhoon watchers work?
Post receives an exclusive tour of the Hong Kong Observatory’s ‘war room’ and hears how AI stacks up against traditional prediction models
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Will AI replace conventional methods in forecasting typhoons in Hong Kong?
In an exclusive tour of the Observatory’s “war room”, or central forecasting office, the Post learned how scientists monitor the weather around the clock and integrate information from computer models and other sources into preparations for the approaching storm.
“The current generation of AI models relies on approximately 40 years of global reanalysis data [for training],” said Lo Ka-wai, a scientific officer at the Observatory.
“By learning from this extensive dataset, the AI models can identify the patterns and relationships of weather evolution, which can then be used to predict future weather changes.”
Last month, Hong Kong narrowly missed its first No 8 typhoon signal this year. Tropical cyclone Wutip, which is named after the Cantonese word for “butterfly”, made an unexpected turn, sparing the city a direct hit.
The Observatory revealed that artificial intelligence (AI) at the time had offered a more accurate prediction of Wutip’s trajectory, outperforming traditional numerical weather models that had resulted in significant discrepancies.