Hong Kong university data model predicts peak of coronavirus fifth wave, tenfold drop in infections over 1 month

Outbreak model, created by researchers at University of Hong Kong, predicts Covid-19 cases will drop to less than 1,000 by April 23

But university professor warns against prematurely easing social-distancing measures, cites risk of possible resurgence in cases, death toll

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Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of the faculty of medicine at the University of Hong Kong. Photo: Yik Yeung-man

Published: 10:43pm, 8 Mar 2022Updated: 11:44pm, 8 Mar 2022

Hong Kong’s most virulent wave of coronavirus cases has already peaked on March 4, with infections having been predicted to drop more than tenfold in a period of more than one month, according to the latest estimates from the University of Hong Kong (HKU).

The outbreak model, which was announced on Tuesday by HKU’s LKS Faculty of Medicine, projected a significant drop in the number of daily cases from the current tens of thousands to fewer than 1,000 by April 23, with the figure set to decrease to below 100 by mid-May.

But despite the anticipated decline in cases, the model estimates that 4.3 million out of the city’s 7.39 million population will have been infected with Covid-19 during the entire fifth wave by May 1, while the total death toll will reach 5,008.

The research also estimated that about 1.8 million people in Hong Kong had been infected over the course of the recent outbreak, as of Monday.

Professor Gabriel Leung, who led the research team, said on social media that the latest prediction had factored in a rising number of acute care beds, the use of novel antiviral drugs, a ramped-up vaccination drive for the elderly and enhanced social-distancing measures during a possible lockdown.

On Tuesday, Hong Kong recorded 30,493 coronavirus cases – including 2,018 infections confirmed by rapid antigen tests – and reported 291 deaths, which included backlogged ones.

Hong Kong university data model predicts peak of coronavirus fifth wave, tenfold drop in infections over 1 month

Outbreak model, created by researchers at University of Hong Kong, predicts Covid-19 cases will drop to less than 1,000 by April 23 But university professor warns against prematurely easing social-distancing measures, cites risk of possible resurgence in cases, death toll

Outbreak model, created by researchers at University of Hong Kong, predicts Covid-19 cases will drop to less than 1,000 by April 23

But university professor warns against prematurely easing social-distancing measures, cites risk of possible resurgence in cases, death toll