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Ling Xin

China’s delay of a high-stakes mission to hunt for water ice near the moon’s south pole may slow its lunar ambitions, but is unlikely to change the bigger contest with the United States over who can build a lasting presence on the moon, according to space experts.
No reason was given when Chang’e-7 was postponed until next year, just hours before Sunday night’s scheduled lift-off, though a major tropical storm was approaching the launch site.
Chinese space authorities said only that the mission did not “meet the launch requirements” and, by Monday evening, the rocket had been rolled back to its assembly building.
Space security strategist John Sheldon, a co-founder of the London-based consultancy AstroAnalytica, said space professionals in the US would certainly not be celebrating the delay.
“The same variables that caused the Chang’e-7 postponement can just as easily happen – and have happened – to US lunar missions.”


However, politically it could ease some pressure on Nasa, Sheldon said. A later Chang’e-7 launch pushed back the prospect of another successful Chinese moon landing, avoiding – for now – some of the “media and political angst” that could generate in Washington.
Svetla Ben-Itzhak, a space security researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, said she was not particularly surprised by the delay, because “space is hard”.
While all lunar missions were complex, Chang’e-7 was “especially ambitious”, Ben-Itzhak said, with its combination of orbiter, lander, rover and a hopper designed to investigate permanently shadowed regions.
China’s earlier Chang’e-5 mission – which collected samples from the lunar surface in 2020 – was also delayed for years because the Long March 5 rocket was not ready, she noted.
“So this is not necessarily about missions always launching on time, but about pursuing missions sequentially and in a sustained manner,” Ben-Itzhak said. “So far, China’s broader lunar programme has done so, with an exceptionally high rate of mission success.”
The Chang’e-7 mission has unusually narrow launch windows because it relies mainly on solar power. The spacecraft needs to touch down near the start of a roughly three-month period of near-continuous sunlight to maximise its time for exploration.
At least two potential launch windows are available next year, around spring and autumn, according to a scientist involved in the mission who spoke on condition of anonymity. That meant Chang’e-7 could be delayed from six months to a year, the scientist said.
Sunlight will also be critical for the mission’s navigation and autonomous hazard avoidance systems during the descent to the moon’s surface.
The lunar south pole is riddled with craters, steep slopes, ridges and deep pits, while the low angle of the sun leaves much of the terrain either hidden in shadow or washed in glare, making safe landing sites difficult to identify.

The southernmost successful lunar landing to date has been India’s Chandrayaan-3, which touched down at a location some distance from the pole itself in 2023. Two US commercial missions have landed closer, but both tipped over.
The Chang’e-7 delay might give the US space agency a chance to reach the south pole region first. Blue Origin’s uncrewed Blue Moon Mark 1 lander, carrying two Nasa instruments, could launch as early as the first half of next year, potentially putting it on a similar timeline to the Chinese mission.
Ben-Itzhak noted that the Chang’e-7 mission was very important to China’s longer-term ambitions, as the next step in a much larger, sequential lunar programme. With Chang’e-8, which will focus on resource utilisation, the mission will set the stage for a basic version of the planned International Lunar Research Station by 2035.
“The more meaningful competition is over which country can translate individual missions into a sustained presence in lunar and cislunar space and build a broader international coalition around its vision for lunar exploration and governance,” she said.
A one-year delay, therefore, did not mean that China was suddenly “losing” this competition, she said. “What it does illustrate, however, is that neither the American nor Chinese lunar timetable should be treated as fixed.”
The concept of cislunar space – which refers to the region between the Earth and the moon – has become increasingly relevant in recent years, especially for the military sector.
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Could the delay to China’s moon mission ease pressure on Nasa?

China’s Chang’e-7 mission will have the challenging task of landing in the sunlit rim of the Shackleton crater at the moon’s south pole. Photo: Nasa

China’s Chang’e-7 mission needs to touch down at the lunar south pole at a period of maximum sunlight, giving it unusually narrow launch windows. Photo: Nasa

China delays Chang’e-7 mission to drill for ice near lunar south pole

The Chang’e-7 mission “does not meet the launch conditions and cannot be carried out within the scheduled launch window this year”, according to authorities. Photo: Handout

The Chang’e-7 lunar probe and the Long March-5 Y14 carrier rocket combination is transferred vertically to the launch area at the Wenchang spaceport in Hainan province on August 19. Photo: Xinhua via AP

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An image of the moon’s surface shows the estimated impact sites for the SpaceX rocket debris according to Chinese firm ATmoto Technology (pink) and Project Pluto (blue). Photo: QQ.com

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In a global first, leading Chinese commercial rocket company LandSpace has recovered a stainless-steel booster after an orbital launch, marking a major step in the country’s efforts to develop lower-cost, reusable rockets. Photo: CCTV

The successful mission makes Zhuque-3 China’s first commercial rocket to both reach orbit and have its first stage recovered. Photo: CCTV

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China

Postponement of ‘especially ambitious’ Chang’e-7 no surprise to space specialists, but the US agency will not be celebrating


Postponement of ‘especially ambitious’ Chang’e-7 no surprise to space specialists, but the US agency will not be celebrating.


United States

Johns Hopkins University

Could the delay to China’s moon mission ease pressure on Nasa?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Postponement of ‘especially ambitious’ Chang’e-7 no surprise to space specialists, but the US agency will not be celebrating

Postponement of ‘especially ambitious’ Chang’e-7 no surprise to space specialists, but the US agency will not be celebrating