Why Siberia’s warming landscape could shatter Trump’s Arctic ambitions

As the United States, Russia and China race to turn a melting Arctic into the world’s next major economic gateway, their strategic ambitions face a hidden threat: thawing permafrost.

Since returning to office last year, US President Donald Trump has pushed to expand America’s Arctic footprint. This includes investing in icebreakers to counter Russian and Chinese shipping ambitions, unlocking natural resources in Alaska and renewing efforts to buy or annex Greenland.

Yet, as the three powers vie for control of Arctic sea lanes and minerals, rapidly thawing permafrost in Russia’s Siberia could derail their plans. According to a new international study led by Chinese scientists, the massive cost of collapsing ground threatens to overshadow the region’s economic potential.

Warming in the Arctic is occurring almost four times faster than the global average. This phenomenon, known as Arctic amplification, has triggered a rapid thaw of the permafrost that covers most of the region.