appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Chao Kong

A study analysing data from hundreds of countries and regions suggests China’s Belt and Road Initiative is linked to better governance and economic development, according to researchers from Nanjing University.
They found the trade and investment scheme – which spans Africa, Asia, Europe and beyond – was also associated with improved corruption control and that it reduced debt risks.
The team – from the university’s Centre for Asia-Pacific Development Studies and led by Mao Weizhun – said their findings challenged characterisations of the trade and infrastructure initiative as a “failure”, “vulnerability trap”, “road of corruption” or a “debt trap”.
They published their research in the peer-reviewed Chinese journal Quarterly Journal of International Politics in late July.
The study involved analysis of data from 197 countries and regions between 2000 and 2023. That included 146 countries that signed belt and road cooperation agreements with China and 135 countries where belt and road infrastructure projects had been launched or completed.


Critics have said the initiative – launched in 2013 – lacks transparency, that the projects fuel unsustainable debt, exploit workers, cause environmental damage and are used by Beijing to wield influence.
Beijing has denied these claims and maintains it is not pursuing “debt trap diplomacy”.
The Nanjing University team’s examination of belt and road cooperation agreements between 2013 and 2023 found that Chinese-backed infrastructure projects contributed to a “development-infrastructure-security” cycle by strengthening economic growth, state capacity and social stability.
“The Belt and Road Initiative, particularly infrastructure construction, has significantly driven a long-term positive cycle in domestic development and national security among countries taking part,” Mao wrote in the paper.
Projects under the sprawling scheme include roads, railways, ports, power networks, communication systems and industrial estates.
Cross-country data analysis was used to assess whether participation and infrastructure development under the belt and road scheme was linked to changes in political stability, governance and economic performance.
The researchers found that belt and road infrastructure projects were associated with better political stability and governance.
They argued that weak infrastructure could contribute to poverty, unemployment and inequality. But better connectivity, more public services and economic opportunities could help reduce these pressures, particularly in developing countries.
The study found nations that received belt and road infrastructure investment showed improvement in corruption control, government effectiveness and quality of governance.
The researchers noted that infrastructure projects were not just about building roads, ports, power plants and communication networks, but also about strengthening the government’s ability to allocate resources and provide public services.
They said infrastructure-related improvements went beyond economic growth by helping governments to maintain order, integrate remote regions and improve institutional effectiveness.


The team also looked at whether Chinese-funded infrastructure projects increased debt risks, using indicators including government debt and fiscal capacity. They found no evidence that taking part in the initiative increased financial vulnerability.
According to the paper, the projects improved logistics, expanded production capacity and led to more revenue, improving debt repayment capacity – and reducing the country’s debt burden.
The analysis used statistical modelling to look at countries across three stages: when they joined the belt and road; when work began on infrastructure projects; and when the projects were completed and put into operation.
It found a debt scale coefficient in the first stage of -1.2 – not a significant level. It did become significant in the second stage, at -10.1, and in the third stage, at -11.2.
“This parallel trend test on debt levels shows the fallacy of the ‘debt trap’ argument,” Mao wrote in the paper.
“The ‘debt trap’ itself lacks empirical support – the limited cases of debt risks were not caused by the Belt and Road Initiative or infrastructure construction, but by long-term structural economic problems accumulated by participating countries.”
Mao did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The researchers argued that while substantial funds were borrowed for the infrastructure projects, they were also productive assets that could generate economic returns.
They said when the projects were completed they had improved transport, energy, communications and logistics networks, and that could boost production efficiency and industrial activity as well as expand the government’s tax revenues.
“Large-scale infrastructure construction not only brings direct economic benefits to the countries taking part but also optimises their economic structures and strengthens their independent development capacity,” Mao wrote.
“As development capacity improves, participating countries can make better use of domestic resources rather than relying on external borrowing to repay debts.”
The study also found that belt and road infrastructure projects were associated with stronger economic performance through improved connectivity, lower trade costs and more industrial capacity.
To determine this, the researchers assessed indicators including the net output of the industrial sector, GDP growth, productivity, and employment in manufacturing and services.
They said railways, ports and energy networks could attract investment, improve logistics and support manufacturing growth.
They cited the China-Laos Railway, the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as examples of infrastructure projects improving regional connectivity.
Taking part in the belt and road scheme was found to boost economic growth, with infrastructure improvements, employment and consumption playing important roles.
The researchers cited previous estimates showing that participating countries’ combined GDP increased by 39.6 per cent five years after joining the initiative.
Another estimate suggested that about 55.3 per cent of the economic growth linked to belt and road participation could be attributed to infrastructure improvements.


The World Bank has estimated that infrastructure built under the belt and road scheme could generate annual benefits equivalent to 1.3 per cent of global GDP, or about US$1.6 trillion, by 2030, with about 90 per cent of those gains going to participating countries.
The study also looked at the social effects of infrastructure investment, including job creation, poverty reduction and inclusive development.
The researchers argued that improved infrastructure could connect poorer regions with markets, expand economic opportunities and improve access to public services.
They cited estimates that belt and road cooperation had supported investment, created hundreds of thousands of jobs and helped millions of people escape poverty.
The World Bank has predicted that development projects under the belt and road could lift about 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million people out of moderate poverty by 2030.


T. rex was warm-blooded and had body temperature close to ours, study finds

China uses 100,000 home-grown AI chips to build leading weather forecast system

Geologists find unexpectedly large water sources in Xinjiang beneath China’s largest desert

Chinese scientists build world’s smallest CT scanner, weighing just 6kg

Science

Nearly 200-country study shows China’s Belt and Road Initiative cuts debt and corruption

According to the study, better connectivity can reduce pressure from poverty, unemployment and inequality, particularly in developing countries. Photo: Xinhua

US faults China over opaque overseas lending, warns of emerging-market debt risks

The US State Department said in its 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report on Tuesday that China had failed to meet its minimum transparency requirements. Photo: Reuters

China shifts from Africa’s top megaproject lender to a debt collector

Chinese-built railways like Nigeria’s Lagos-Ibadan line reflect the megaproject era of Beijing’s lending in Africa, now giving way to a more cautious phase. Photo: Xinhua

The Jomo Kenyatta International Airport toll station on the Nairobi Expressway, built under a public-private partnership between Kenya and the China Road and Bridge Corporation. Photo: Reuters

The 2017 opening of the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, built by a joint consortium of China Railway Engineering Corporation and China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation. Photo: Felix Wong

China completes first full test of canal link to Southeast Asia ahead of September launch

A Chinese maritime patrol vessel completes the first full navigation test of the Pinglu Canal. Photo: Handout

The human faces of China’s belt and road strategy, through Liu Heung-shing’s lens

Engineers at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Pulitzer Prize-winning photojournalist Liu Heung-shing at his home in Happy Valley. Photo: Alexander Mak

Liu peruses his book “Old Road New Connections: China Builds a Different World”. Photo: Alexander Mak

Liu Heung-shing works on his book “Old Road New Connections: China Builds a Different World”. Photo: courtesy Liu Heung-shing

A camel is led past a petrol station in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Chinese-built high-speed trains known locally as Whoosh, at the terminal station in Bandung, Indonesia. The Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line is an 88 mile (142km) train project, requiring 13 tunnels that was completed through a joint venture with China to achieve a journey time of just 46 minutes between Jakarta and Bandung. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Dancers from Beijing Modern Dance Company perform in the Gobi Desert in Dunhuang. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Hadiya Msham Abdulla from Tanzania and her Uygur husband, Dilshat Tursun, in their cafe in the old city of Kashgar, in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Citic Environmental Group workers in an oilfield near the Caspian Sea in Aktau, Kazakhstan. The oilfield was discovered in 1978 when the region was part of the Soviet Union. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Richard Nixon poses as a waiter aboard a train from Hangzhou to Shanghai in 1982. The former United States president was in China to mark the 10th anniversary of the signing of the Shanghai Communiqué, which laid the foundations for normalising bilateral relations between the two countries. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

Liu Heung-shing’s new book “Old Road New Connections: China Builds a Different World”. Photo: Liu Heung-shing

News

China

Data analysis spanning more than 20 years across 197 countries and regions challenges ‘debt trap diplomacy’ narrative


Data analysis spanning more than 20 years across 197 countries and regions challenges ‘debt trap diplomacy’ narrative.


Indonesia

Laos

World Bank Group

Nanjing University

Nearly 200-country study shows China’s Belt and Road Initiative cuts debt and corruption

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Data analysis spanning more than 20 years across 197 countries and regions challenges ‘debt trap diplomacy’ narrative

Data analysis spanning more than 20 years across 197 countries and regions challenges ‘debt trap diplomacy’ narrative