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Dannie Peng

As residents of eastern China brace for Typhoon Bavi to make landfall, bloggers have turned to AI weather models to post forecasts on social media, prompting criticism from state media, which warned that the amateur predictions could fall foul of the law.
State broadcaster China Media Group reported on Thursday that some bloggers claiming to be “weather enthusiasts” were issuing forecasts using data from various open-source artificial intelligence weather models.
Some have even begun offering predictions for specific locations for a fee, according to the broadcaster, also known as Voice of China.
On Thursday evening, a blogger from Shandong province posted predictions about Typhoon Bavi on social media, saying there was a “90 per cent chance” the storm could move deep into Shandong, based on tracking models.
Under the Meteorology Law of the People’s Republic of China, public weather alerts are subject to a centralised release system, and official meteorological stations are the only authorised issuers of forecasts and severe weather warnings.
Huang Xiang, a researcher at Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST), explained to the broadcaster that the centralised system was vital to prevent public confusion.
“By sharing such predictive content on social media, bloggers are already making what amounts to forecasts or warnings about meteorological disasters, which may cause public misunderstanding or even panic,” Huang said.
He added that meteorological authorities could hold these online content creators liable, and platforms should be required to restrict such content.
Under Chinese law, anyone who illegally releases public weather forecasts or severe-weather alerts may be issued an official warning, ordered to make corrections, or fined up to 50,000 yuan (US$7,375).
Other experts noted that the legality depended on the intent and audience of the post.


Li Lei, an associate professor at Zhongnan University of Economics and Law in Wuhan, said that if a blogger was merely analysing academic materials and weather data without making a definitive forecast, it did not constitute a violation.
However, if a blogger personally issued a public weather forecast, it probably breached the law, Li added.
Wei Ke, an associate professor of atmospheric science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), said, “Chinese law mandates that the China Meteorological Administration be responsible for public forecasts, but it does not prohibit specialised services beyond that.”
“It ultimately depends on the intended audience.”
China is rapidly advancing the use of AI to address the toughest challenges in meteorology.
Last month, a team at the Shenzhen Institutes of Advanced Technology, affiliated with CAS, deployed the country’s first 24-hour rapid intensification forecast model for typhoons.
The model, which integrates four machine-learning algorithms into an ensemble forecasting system, has already been adopted by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), according to the team.
On Friday, the NMC said Bavi had weakened to a “severe typhoon”, with wind speeds at its centre falling to 45 metres per second (100mph) as it continued towards China’s southeastern coast.
The storm is expected to make landfall between Xiapu in Fujian province and Wenling in Zhejiang province. Flights have been cancelled and airlines are offering refunds in at least 10 airports as Bavi nears the coast.


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As Typhoon Bavi nears, Chinese bloggers warned amateur AI forecasts may be illegal

Fishing boats in east China’s Jiangsu province are moored on Friday in preparation for Typhoon Bavi, which is predicted to hit the region this weekend. Photo: AFP

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China

Online ‘weather enthusiasts’ in China are posting typhoon predictions, prompting criticism from state media


Online ‘weather enthusiasts’ in China are posting typhoon predictions, prompting criticism from state media.


As Typhoon Bavi nears, Chinese bloggers warned amateur AI forecasts may be illegal

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Online ‘weather enthusiasts’ in China are posting typhoon predictions, prompting criticism from state media

Online ‘weather enthusiasts’ in China are posting typhoon predictions, prompting criticism from state media