appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Chao Kong

Attacks on Chinese citizens and businesses in sub-Saharan Africa tend to increase in the years following a rise in Chinese investment, according to a new study by researchers at the School of Overseas Security and Protection at the Chinese People’s Police University.
However, the authors stressed that the findings should not be interpreted as evidence that Chinese investment itself caused violence.
They argued that Chinese investment was often concentrated in resource-rich but politically fragile regions where armed conflict, weak governance and social tensions were already prevalent.
The South China Morning Post has decided not to name the report’s authors due to the sensitivity of the subject matter.
As investment expands, Chinese projects, companies and personnel become more exposed to existing security risks. According to the researchers, investment interacts with local political and social conditions rather than acting as an independent trigger for violence.
“The coexistence of high risks and high investment creates a complex two-way relationship: various conflicts and their derived social risks continuously threaten Chinese project operations and personnel safety, while large-scale investment may also reshape local socio-economic structures and is even viewed by some as a potential factor that exacerbates conflicts,” said the report published in the peer-reviewed China Mining Magazine in May.


The research team analysed 484 security incidents involving Chinese interests across sub-Saharan Africa between 2013 and 2024. The study identified Chinese investment as the strongest statistical predictor of security incidents involving Chinese interests across the region.
Their model incorporated Chinese investment, armed conflict, unemployment, population density, political stability and other socio-economic indicators to examine how these factors interacted over time, rather than focusing solely on conventional country-level political risk.
One of the study’s main findings was that investment influenced security risks through two distinct pathways. In the short term, expanding investment increased the visibility and exposure of Chinese projects, making them more likely to become targets where local tensions already existed.
Over the longer term, investment could gradually reshape local economic structures, resource allocation and community interests, creating conditions that influenced security risks years later, the study suggested.
The paper described this pattern as a combination of time-lagged and cumulative effects rather than an immediate cause-and-effect relationship.
However, investment was not the only factor associated with attacks.
Historical armed conflict, unemployment and population density were also critical drivers. Within the study sample, security risks increased sharply once annual armed conflict events surpassed 200, or unemployment exceeded 15 per cent.
The database was assembled from multiple public sources rather than a single official data set, the authors said.
Security incidents involving Chinese interests were compiled from publicly available news reports, overseas security information platforms and other open-source materials collected by the research team.
Conflict data came from the global Armed Conflict Location & Event Data or ACLED project, while Chinese overseas investment figures were drawn from China’s annual outward direct investment statistical reports.
Economic indicators – including unemployment, GDP growth, political stability and population density – were obtained from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund before being matched and consolidated into a unified database.
The study was intended to provide more practical guidance for companies investing overseas.

Rather than focusing only on national political conditions, businesses should also consider local governance, community interests and social tensions, as many security risks emerged first at the local rather than national level, the researchers noted.
“Chinese enterprises must shift from passive responses to proactively managing the dynamic interaction between their investments and local systems,” the report suggested.
“When the host country experiences governance collapse, disintegration of central government authority, or de facto warlord control in certain regions, the risk-suppressing effect of investment dependence will cease to function.”
According to the paper, integrating security planning into the earliest stages of investment decisions could help Chinese companies shift from reacting to crises to managing risks proactively.
The authors also acknowledged important limitations.
One obvious question was whether the statistical relationship reflected the fact that larger investments brought more Chinese workers and thereby increased the number of potential targets.
The research team said this possibility could not be completely ruled out because the model did not directly include the size of the overseas Chinese population.
Future studies, they suggested, should incorporate variables such as the number of Chinese nationals or workers overseas to better distinguish the effects of investment, personnel presence and risk exposure.
The report also noted that potentially important factors such as project localisation, community integration and other micro-level characteristics – which could help explain why some Chinese investments appear more vulnerable than others – were not included.


China tests first practical submarine solar power plant at 10-metre depth in the open sea

Rare earth exposure can triple low birthweight risk: Chinese study

China must enforce high standards of integrity for scientists

Is China’s fabled Empress Dowager Huayang buried near an airport? A study says yes

Science

Chinese police uncover link between investment and attacks on citizens in Africa

Passengers get off a train at a station on the Chinese-built Lagos-Ibadan Railway in Nigeria. Photo: Xinhua

Average risk probability map. Photo: China Mining Magazine

Can China’s strict policing model ‘silence the guns’ in Africa?

Liu Bin, China’s assistant foreign minister, speaks at the opening ceremony of the China-UN-Africa training programme at the People's Public Security University in Beijing on June 16. Photo: Handout

Africa’s Great Lakes region has been destabilised by the illicit proliferation of small arms fuelling conflict. Photo: AFP

Is China’s risk tolerance reaching its limit with pause of African mine deal?

The Sadiola mine in Mali is Canadian company Allied Gold’s biggest mining asset in Africa. Photo: Wikipedia

Chinese company Zijin Mining Group’s agreement to buy Canadian company Allied Gold has been extended to July 29. Photo: Shutterstock

Fuelling a continent: how China’s engineering prowess built Africa’s biggest oil refinery

Built at a cost of about US$20 billion, Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos, Nigeria, produces 650,000 barrels per day at full capacity. Photo: Reuters

An oil vessel waits at Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s loading and discharging point in Lagos. Photo: Reuters

The high risks of Chinese players’ high-reward stakes in African mining

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen

Gunmen kidnap 4 Chinese workers from Nigeria mine

Chinese employees working on mines in Nigeria’s remote areas are often targeted for kidnapping. Photo: Shutterstock

News

China

Chinese projects, firms and workers in Africa more vulnerable to security threats in regions where armed conflict, social tensions thrive


Chinese projects, firms and workers in Africa more vulnerable to security threats in regions where armed conflict, social tensions thrive.


International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank Group

Chinese police uncover link between investment and attacks on citizens in Africa

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Chinese projects, firms and workers in Africa more vulnerable to security threats in regions where armed conflict, social tensions thrive

Chinese projects, firms and workers in Africa more vulnerable to security threats in regions where armed conflict, social tensions thrive