China could lose 35% of its cropland by 2100, scientists warn

Researchers say even if countries meet Paris Agreement targets on climate change, key agricultural areas could become wetlands or forests

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Rising temperatures are expected to raise challenges for cropping in China. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 12:00pm, 26 Feb 2025Updated: 12:01pm, 26 Feb 2025

A peer-reviewed study published earlier this month estimated that 35 per cent of China’s cropland could disappear by 2100, even if the world delivers on its pledge to limit global warming under the Paris Agreement.

The research raises concerns about food security and highlights the need for updated cropland protection policies.

According to the scientists, agricultural land will largely be converted into wetlands and forests, particularly in grain-producing regions such as the Sichuan Basin and the plains of north and northeast China.

Significant shifts will occur in cropland and grassland areas in China’s southern and coastal regions, along with changes in wetland areas along the eastern coastline and the southern coastal zone, according to the study.

Gao Peichao, deputy director of Beijing Normal University’s Centre for Geo-Data and Analysis, and his team published their findings in the February issue of Science China Earth Sciences.

Using information from a publicly available data set called CLUMondo, the researchers created a detailed map showing different land types: cropland, forest, shrub land, wetland, water bodies, artificial surfaces, and areas covered in snow or ice. Each land type was classified as low, medium or high density.

A map from the study shows various land types in China and how they could be affected by rising temperatures. Photo: Science China Press