Chinese cities pass Covid-19 peak, but rural surge still to come, researchers say
- Scientists say infection wave has likely crested in Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing and Guangzhou, according to mathematical model
- However, cases expected to spike in inner provinces around mid-January as migrants travel home for Lunar New Year
Researchers from Ruijin Hospital and Shanghai Jiao Tong University used a mathematical model based on infections from early October 2022 through November 29 to predict Covid-19 trends across the country.
According to their projections, infections in the urban areas of Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing likely peaked at the end of 2022, while peak infections in Guangzhou had already passed as of late November.
The research was led by Chen Saijuan, a molecular biologist with Shanghai Jiao Tong University. The team’s findings were published last week in Frontiers of Medicine, a medical journal sponsored by China’s Ministry of Education.
Wu Zunyou, an epidemiologist with the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week that Covid-19 cases in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei province, Chengdu and Chongqing were estimated to have passed their peak.
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