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ChinaPolitics

What’s the one big thing missing from Beijing’s Taiwan deterrence strategy?

The country has military strength and political resolve but more work needs to be done on a third element, an NPC deputy says

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Beijing has established military capacity and political resolve in relation to unification with Taiwan but should do more to communicate its deterrence, an NPC deputy says. Photo: Getty Images
William Zheng
Beijing has built military capacity and strengthened political resolve but needs to project a more credible deterrence as it steps up unification with Taiwan over the next five years, according to a mainland Chinese policy adviser.

Li Yihu, dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Peking University, said the reunification process would enter an “accelerated phase” in the next five years and the mainland needed to do more to communicate an understanding of what he said was the inevitability of the process.

“Currently, we are doing very well in terms of building the capacity and the resolve to use [military deterrence], but we still need to work on ensuring that … both overt and potential adversaries fully understand the consequences of deterrence and the gains and losses,” he said.

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Li gave the assessment on Sunday at a forum organised by the China Review News Agency, an outlet backed by Beijing and based in Hong Kong.

He was referencing the deterrence theory of former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger, who argued that deterrence was a product of the physical military capacity to inflict damage, the resolve and willingness of leadership to act and the potential rivals’ perception and understanding of the deterrer’s power and resolve.
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Li noted that history showed that for deterrence to work, nations needed to “effectively grasp all the three key components”.

“The mainland needs to further seize the initiative, namely, to improve its ability to provide early warnings, respond to incidents, and achieve desired results when dealing with relevant situations.”

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