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Lawrence Chung

It took five months and more than a dozen rounds of talks but officials from Taiwan and mainland China finally hatched a deal for the return of the remains of two mainland fishermen this week.
The fishermen died in waters near the Taiwan-controlled island of Quemoy – also known as Kinmen – on February 14 after their boat capsized during a pursuit by Taiwanese coastguard boats.
The incident set off a barrage of accusations from both sides of the Taiwan Strait but ended in an agreement that raised hopes for the reopening of a dialogue channel between the two.
But analysts remain cautious, saying neither is willing to compromise on the most critical issue.


Under the agreement reached on Tuesday, Taiwan agreed to compensate the victims’ families, apologise, and repatriate the bodies of the two men.
Chen Yu-jen, a legislator from the Quemoy constituency and a member of the main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), said the settlement marked a good start for mending fences between both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
“This will allow our two sides to accumulate more goodwill, which is advantageous for improving relations,” said Chen, who has promoted better communication between the island and the mainland.
Her KMT legislative colleague Hsu Yu-chen agreed, saying the incident could pave the way for further dialogue.
“Though the incident created a crisis, its resolution can serve as a stepping stone for re-establishing a cross-strait dialogue channel based on this format,” she said, adding: “This would help ease cross-strait tension.”
This will allow our two sides to accumulate more goodwill
Chen Yu-jen, KMT legislator
Communication was suspended in 2016 when Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected the island’s leader and declined to recognise the 1992 consensus, an understanding that Beijing sees as the foundation for any talks.
The consensus is a verbal understanding reached by Beijing and the KMT in Hong Kong in 1992, allowing the two sides to continue talks under the premise that there is only one China, but each side can have its own interpretation of what that China stands for.
Tsai’s successor, William Lai Ching-te, has also avoided the consensus, much to Beijing’s ire. Lai, who was elected in January, was inaugurated on May 20 and declared that Taiwan and the mainland “are not subordinate to each other”, a declaration that Beijing branded as proof of his “obstinate separatist” intentions.
In a statement on Wednesday, the DPP welcomed the agreement on the Quemoy incident, saying it “indicates that even with differing cross-strait positions, and regardless of political preconditions or labels, communication and problem-solving can occur based on equality and mutual respect”.
It said the government “is open to dialogue with the Chinese government without preconditions” and “will manage cross-strait affairs with a rational and pragmatic attitude”.


Analysts noted that both sides had softened their position on the February 14 incident, which would help enable cross-strait communication.
“The incident finally came to an end after both sides stopped stubbornly holding onto their positions and were willing to make concessions,” said Chang Wu-ueh, a professor of mainland China studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.
“Cross-strait ties have remained tense and confrontational since May 20. The satisfactory resolution of this issue is a good sign as it could pave the way for normal personnel exchanges between the two sides.”
Chang said he thought there could also be a positive outcome in the case of a Taiwanese soldier held by the mainland since March, as well as that of the five crew members of a Taiwanese fishing boat that violated the mainland’s fishing ban by operating in waters near Quanzhou last month.
The soldier was detained after his boat drifted near Quanzhou in foggy weather during a fishing trip with a civilian friend. While the friend was released, the soldier from Quemoy remains in custody, accused of “intentionally” concealing his occupation.
Chen Yu-jen, who also helped communicate with the mainland for the soldier’s release, expressed confidence that Beijing would return the man on August 7.


But analysts said it was highly unlikely that the mainland would accept the latest settlement as a new basis for resuming cross-strait talks and improving relations more broadly.
“It would be too optimistic to assume that the resolution could lead to reopening the long-suspended official talks between the two sides, given their thorny political differences,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a think tank in Taipei.
Like Tsai, Lai “is unlikely to accept the ‘1992 consensus’ and will adhere to his hardline counter-China-and-protect-Taiwan stance”, Lo said, adding that the hardcore pro-independence camp also would not allow him to appear to give ground to Beijing.
Bao Chengke, deputy director of the Institute for East Asian Studies in Shanghai, said the February 14 incident was treated as a humanitarian concern and handled as “a special case, a singular, isolated event”.
“I do not believe this is a routine way to solve cross-strait issues. The routine solution should still be based on the 1992 consensus, with the recognition that both sides belong to one China,” he said.
Bao said the incident had dragged on and a settlement was necessary to address public concerns and help the bereaved families.
Chen Binhua, a spokesman for the mainland’s Taiwan Affairs Office, echoed that position on Wednesday, saying the talks in Quemoy “had nothing to do with cross-strait negotiations.”
“The reason for the suspension of institutionalised cross-strait negotiation mechanisms is well known, and only by returning to the political foundation of the ‘1992 consensus’ can cross-strait negotiations be resumed,” he said.
Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which charts cross-strait policy, also said the incident was a “singular and isolated accidental event”, whose settlement was achieved through “persistent communication and efforts” by “various sectors of society”.


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A five-month crisis over the deaths of two men near Quemoy has ended but one critical obstacle remains, observers say


A five-month crisis over the deaths of two men near Quemoy has ended but one critical obstacle remains, observers say.


Taiwan economy