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Sylvie Zhuang

Beijing has vowed to improve “early warning” systems to better protect national security related to foreign affairs and its overseas interests – a move analysts say is about identifying strategic risks like the threat of economic sanctions.
It was one of a number of policy decisions for the next five years approved by China’s top leadership at last week’s Communist Party conclave, the third plenum.
A lengthy document with the full text of those decisions was released on Sunday, with a section on building the mechanisms needed to ensure national security in foreign affairs.
It calls national security “a pivotal foundation for ensuring steady and sustained progress in Chinese modernisation”.
“We will strengthen the institutions and mechanisms for early warning, prevention and control, and protection against risks to China’s interests and investments overseas and deepen international law enforcement cooperation in the realm of security,” it reads.
This is to “protect the lawful rights and interests of Chinese citizens and legal entities overseas”.


Zhu Feng, executive dean of Nanjing University’s School of International Studies, said it was critical for Beijing to identify investment risks abroad given its “deep involvement” in Western economic and military systems.
“The most important aspect of improving early warning mechanisms is the ability to predict and anticipate major strategic risks that may arise from potential US pressure on China in the future,” he said.
Zhu said US sanctions and pressure on China – including criticism of its position on Russia’s war in Ukraine – would have a significant impact on its future trade and economic relations with other countries.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last month, for example, reportedly said the US would not rule out taking action against Chinese banks if they violated sanctions against Russia.
Zhu said China would find ways to improve its ability to identify and prevent risks in this area.
“Right now, the most important question is whether the US might impose financial sanctions on China,” he said. “Is it possible? Could the US freeze the overseas assets of Chinese financial institutions?”
He added that it was “important to avoid being caught off guard and instead be able to respond and resolve issues in a timely manner”.
Edward Knight, a China geopolitical analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change in London, said the latest move could signal a greater awareness of global security and its impact on China’s investments overseas – and ultimately its domestic economy.
“[China] got burnt in a few countries where it had high investments due to instability and they understand now that they rely on the global economy and want to minimise exposure to these shocks,” he said.




China has invested heavily in countries facing instability and crisis in recent years. For example, it is the key trading partner of Sudan, a country that has been engulfed in an escalating internal conflict since April last year. China has granted loans of more than US$6.5 billion to Sudan since 2010, according to the American Enterprise Institute’s China Global Investment Tracker.
Knight said it was “natural” for the Communist Party to want to be more alert to the changing global security situation because “the world is more unstable than it has been for a generation”.
He expected Beijing to be “more discerning” about which countries to invest in and that it could potentially “set up some level of overseas security presence alongside logistics hubs in key countries”.
But China will face “severe restraints” on any efforts to protect its interests overseas, according to Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing.
Those restraints included both self-imposed and external limitations on the use or threat of force, the limited availability of military bases, and the lack of concrete common security arrangements.
“[This will] all limit what Beijing can do,” Shi said. “In a word, China will do more – but not so much.”
In the party resolution document released on Sunday, Beijing also called for the mechanism to “counter foreign sanctions, interference and long-arm jurisdiction” to be strengthened, and it vowed to improve “the rule of law in foreign-related affairs”.
Matthew Erie, an associate professor at the University of Oxford and principal investigator of the China, Law and Development project, said this signals that “US-China lawfare is becoming entrenched and will likely continue into the near future”.
He said Beijing aimed to modernise the legal system’s capacity to address foreign law-related issues in both commercial and geostrategic contexts.
“This means dealing with more foreign law and international law issues in international trade and investment and what the Chinese authorities perceive to be unlawful US use of ‘long-arm jurisdiction’,” he said.


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The top leadership has vowed to improve ‘early warning’ systems to identify threats to its interests and investments overseas


The top leadership vowed to improve ‘early warning’ systems to identify threats to its interests and investments overseas at last week’s third plenum.


Third plenum: China wants to be better prepared for strategic risks like economic sanctions

.css-1mniedq{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;}The top leadership has vowed to improve ‘early warning’ systems to identify threats to its interests and investments overseas

The top leadership has vowed to improve ‘early warning’ systems to identify threats to its interests and investments overseas