Why did a Chinese nuclear-powered submarine suddenly surface in the Taiwan Strait?

Experts speculate the rare event for the powerful Type 094 vessel was a deliberate show of force, routine maintenance or possible malfunction

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A PLA nuclear-powered submarine, thought to be a Type 094, was caught on camera by fisherman when it suddenly surfaced early Tuesday morning in the Taiwan Strait. Photo: Handout

Published: 8:00pm, 19 Jun 2024

Taiwan said it “closely monitored” the passage of a PLA Navy nuclear-powered submarine in the sensitive Taiwan Strait after fishermen spotted it surfacing abruptly early on Tuesday.

The submarine was seen at about 5am just west of the median line that separates the island and the mainland, about 46km (25 nautical miles) from Taiwan-controlled Quemoy Island, also known as Kinmen, according to news reports. The sighting was about 200km (120 miles) from Taiwan’s west coast.

Soon after, another PLA warship was seen escorting the submarine towards the mainland. The submarine did not submerge again, the reports quoted fishermen as saying.

“The military had a comprehensive understanding of the situation through relevant intelligence and reconnaissance methods,” Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo said, without giving further details or speculating on the crew’s intentions.

Taiwanese military experts suspected the submarine was a Type 094, based on photos taken by the fishing crews. They said the submarine could have surfaced for routine maintenance, a technical malfunction, changes in underwater topography, or a deliberate show of force.

“Nuclear submarines like the Type 094 have specialised missions and typically avoid surfacing due to their sensitivity and the need for stealth,” said Ying-yu Lin, a professor of international relations and strategic studies at Tamkang University in New Taipei.

However, he did not rule out the possibility of “navigational problems or technical issues causing the submarine to surface”.

Zivon Wang, a military analyst at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies think tank in Taipei, said the submarine’s position indicated it was sailing within the 12 nautical mile limit of the mainland’s territorial waters.