It’s time for China to tear up the rule book on family size
Two-child policy is still too restrictive to stave off demographic time bomb
One of the big changes in China since President Xi Jinping took power five years ago is the ending of the notorious one-child policy, which was replaced by a two-child policy.
But this adjustment did not go far enough to drive the country’s fertility ratio to a healthy level – and to stave off its demographic time bomb. It’s time for Beijing to get rid of birth restrictions entirely, and to encourage Chinese to have bigger families.
According to the latest statistics from the National Health and Family Planning Commission, there were 7.4 million births in the first five months of this year – up 7.8 per cent from a year ago. More than half of the new babies were the second children of their parents.
But China’s birth rate continues to decline. In fact, the country is still at the edge of a population crash with a fertility ratio – the average number of children born per woman – of 1.3. That ratio needs to be at 2.1 to keep the population stable over the long run.
The two-child policy will not be enough to achieve such a ratio. Even if every family wants to have two children, the real ratio will be below 2. In the real world, a recent survey by the China Population Association found that 12.5 per cent of Chinese couples are infertile.