China faces 2026 marked by economic strains and uneasy rivalry with US: Asia Society
Report says Beijing must juggle control and growth as debt, demographics and US tech tensions shape the year ahead
Beijing and Washington will continue to circle each other warily in 2026 even as China’s leadership struggles to balance economic growth against its control fixation, according to a report on next year’s outlook for China released on Wednesday by the Asia Society.
“As we look towards 2026, the story is not one of rises or triumph. It’s not black or white,” said Lizzi Lee, a fellow at the Society’s Centre for China Analysis and one of the report’s co-authors. “It is a story of transitions, trade-offs and tensions.”
But any stability ahead is “rooted not in accommodation but in a shared recognition of each side’s capacity to inflict significant economic harm on the other”, said the report. “Both sides are racing to eliminate the other’s strategic chokepoints.”
“Mutual suspicion will endure, and the political space for compromise will remain fragile and limited,” the report said.