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Alcott Wei

US air strikes may have weakened Iran’s ability to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, but in the short term it is probably too risky to provide a military escort for oil tankers because of the threat from drones and mines, according to Chinese analysts.
Multiple media reports have said the United States was considering the use of ground troops to open the waterway, but many military observers have argued this would not be enough without further protracted fighting.
The strait is a vital shipping route that carries around 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies, but traffic has come to a near standstill since the start of the US-Israeli assault on Iran on February 28.
Compared with the pre-war average of 100 to 35 ships a day, just 89 ships – including 16 oil tankers – passed through the strait between March 1 and 15, according to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
Oil prices have surged above US$100 a barrel as a result of the blockade, and the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to zero for the first time last Saturday.
Iran is located on the northern shore of the strait, and around 20 ships in the region have been attacked since the conflict began.
As part of its attempts to lift the blockade, the US has targeted several naval bases and other military facilities along the Iranian coast.
US Central Command said on Tuesday that “multiple 5,000lb (about 2,300kg) deep penetrator munitions” had been used to strike Iranian missile sites along the strait.
“Since anti-ship missile sites are not buried nearly 100 metres deep like nuclear sites containing enriched uranium, a 5,000lb yield is already enough to cause some damage to the sites,” Song Zhongping, a former PLA Rocket Force instructor, said, comparing the attacks with last June’s strikes on underground facilities that used 30,000 bombs that could penetrate to a depth of 60 metres (196 feet).




“The US will conduct an attack effect assessment in the coming days before considering further strikes.”
The 5,000lb bombs – which some analysts believe to be GBU-72/B bunker-busters – can be carried by F-15 fighters rather than bombers, said Fu Qianshao, a retired PLA Air Force colonel.
“At the very least, [these strikes] would make it difficult for Iran to launch its coastal missiles and, theoretically, these missile bases could be eliminated within a certain time frame,” Fu said.
“Recently, the number of missile launches along Iran’s coast has decreased significantly, which can alleviate some of the pressure on the United States in dealing with the blockade.”
But even if Iran’s navy and air defences have suffered significant damage, analysts said it could still maintain the blockade using asymmetric forces, particularly drones and mines.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said last Friday there was no clear evidence that Iran had laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Pentagon said on Tuesday that it had destroyed 16 minelayers.
But a 2019 report by the US Defence Intelligence Agency said Iran had more than 5,000 naval mines that could be laid rapidly using small ships.
Fu said Iran had a large number of these vessels and it would be difficult for the US to destroy them all.
“Many smart mines are designed to detonate against US warships, but the US relies heavily on warships for minesweeping. The risk of US warships operating near the strait remains high,” Fu added.
“Many previous US operations have relied on allies for minesweeping and its own mine-handling capabilities are not particularly strong.”
President Donald Trump has asked US allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.
Song said the US would also target drone sites, but it would be “very difficult to completely suppress the drone threat to the strait” given the flexible nature of drone warfare.
“If these risks cannot be eliminated, the US warships cannot provide escorts.
“The US will conduct strikes, [carry out] attack effect assessments, strike again, and repeat this process repeatedly,” Song said.
“Ultimately, it will determine whether Iran still has the ability to blockade the strait before deciding whether to allow warships or tankers into the strait.”
Song added that the US would continue to carry out decapitation strikes to weaken the Iranian chain of command.
Much of the US debate around ground troops has focused on Kharg Island, which is both a key military stronghold and home to many of Iran’s oil facilities.
The US has already targeted military installations on the island, including mine storage depots and missile bunkers, and Trump has threatened to destroy the oil facilities if the blockade is not lifted.


“The US might consider occupying this island, but it’s too close to Iranian coastal rocket artillery and missiles, and the landing force would face immense pressure,” Fu said.
Hu Bo, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative, a Beijing-based think tank, said: “For the next step, the US might deploy its marine corps to symbolically occupy some of Iran’s strongholds along the strait to break the deadlock.
“I think at the current rate of mobilisation, US amphibious forces could be in place in 10 to 15 days.”
“If the United States wants to completely control the Strait of Hormuz, the US-Iran military conflict will become protracted, energy supplies will become more uncertain, and Beijing will inevitably oppose it,” said Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University.
Additional reporting by Amber Wang


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Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping


Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping.


Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Many military analysts are sceptical

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping

Chinese observers question whether air strikes, and even a limited ground presence, will be enough to remove the threat to shipping