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Seong Hyeon Choi

Washington’s redeployment of elements of its missile defence systems from South Korea to the Middle East could be read by China as a short-term capability gap in the region, analysts said.
They said the move also underlined US flexibility to move its assets across theatres of operation.
A Washington Post report on Tuesday citing two unnamed US government officials said that the United States had been moving parts of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system stationed in South Korea to the Middle East, where the US is fighting a war against Iran.
According to South Korean media reports, the US has also begun sending Patriot missile defence systems to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Seoul has indirectly confirmed the moves.
During a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said that while the movement of the US air defence systems out of South Korea would “absolutely not” undermine Seoul’s deterrence strategy against North Korea, it was a “stark reality” that South Korea’s opinions would not be heeded.
“While we have expressed opposition, the reality is that we cannot fully push through our position,” he said.

Both the THAAD and Patriot systems form part of South Korea’s multilayered defence architecture, protecting against ballistic missile threats from potential adversaries such as North Korea.
THAAD is designed to destroy short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in their final phase of flight at high altitudes – between 40km (25 miles) and 150km – acting as an upper-tier air defence system covering a wider range.
Patriot missiles target shorter-range threats that have bypassed the upper-tier defence, typically at lower altitudes of 15km to 40km.
America’s deployment of the THAAD missile defence system in South Korea in 2017 drew strong opposition from China, which views the system’s radar as a threat to its own missile capabilities and national security.
Beijing responded by imposing unofficial economic sanctions on South Korea, souring relations between the two countries.


Benjamin Barton, an associate professor of politics and international relations at the University of Nottingham Malaysia, said given warming ties between Seoul and Beijing since Lee took office, relocating THAAD would “only further enhance the current goodwill”.
“With America’s inconsistent signalling, if the THAAD [system] is moved elsewhere, this somewhat changes the calculus for [South Korea],” Barton said.
“It not only has to depend on itself more for its own survival, but it has to contend with China playing a more prominent role in East Asian geopolitics, especially if the Americans continue to show reluctance to maintain a strong presence anywhere outside the western hemisphere and/or in relation to ad hoc military missions.”
The sudden absence from South Korea of two US-made air defence systems has raised concerns about potential gaps in deterrence against missile attacks.
While South Korea’s domestically produced medium-range Cheongung-II batteries can partially plug the gap left by the Patriot systems, its recently developed Long-Range Surface-to-Air Missile or L-SAM – often described as the Korean version of THAAD – is only expected to come into service in 2027.
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said that while the missile systems’ relocation did not necessarily “spell the end of US commitment”, it certainly amounted to a capability gap on the Korean peninsula in the short term.
While we have expressed opposition, the reality is that we cannot fully push through our position
Lee Jae Myung, president, South Korea
“Clearly, for China, for North Korea, it is a great thing … but to allies in the region, it seems to signal that Trump might be going all out on the Middle East, with the Indo-Pacific [pushed to] the wayside. That may not sound reassuring to allies,” Koh said.
Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Washington-based think tank Hudson Institute, said that any movement of Patriot or THAAD systems from South Korea to the Middle East underscored the fact that advanced air and missile defences were scarce when multiple crises erupted at once.
“Washington is responding to an urgent operational need, but it also reflects an early test of the US’ ability to shift its forces based in Asia to deal with global contingencies as needed,” Cronin said.
The relocation of US Forces Korea’s (USFK) air defence systems comes amid the Trump administration’s drive to modernise the US-South Korea alliance, aimed at expanding USFK’s strategic flexibility beyond its traditional role of deterring North Korean threats to address wider regional conflicts.

The Pentagon’s National Defence Strategy, released in January, and the White House’s National Security Strategy, released in December, both emphasise the need for collective defence of the first island chain, and for US allies in the Indo-Pacific and Europe to shoulder greater responsibility for their own defence in areas Washington does not consider a priority.
The first island chain is a series of islands and archipelagos in East Asia, running from Japan to the Philippines. It includes Taiwan, which Beijing views as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary.
Most countries, including the US and its allies, do not recognise self-governed Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any forcible change to the status quo and is legally bound to supply Taipei with weapons for defence.
Li Yihu, dean of the Taiwan Research Institute at Peking University and a deputy to China’s top legislature, said this week that the diversion of US assets would significantly affect US deployments in East Asia.
With advances in area-denial capabilities in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing stands to benefit if US military deployments are eroded in the region, according to Li, who also stated that peaceful reunification was still Beijing’s preferred option.
To allies in the region, [the relocation of missile systems] seems to signal that Trump might be going all out on the Middle East, with the Indo-Pacific [pushed to] the wayside
Collin Koh, senior fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said the relocation of the USFK’s missile defence systems to the Middle East could be seen as a “realisation” of the strategic flexibility Washington had long emphasised as part of its modernisation of the US-South Korea alliance.
Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said China was likely to read the current relocations as proof that US “overstretch” was “real at the margins”, creating “near-term windows to probe and pressure rivals while the US is tied down elsewhere”.
However, she said the moves also showed that US surge capacity and alliance networks “remain formidable”, meaning that in a Taiwan scenario, the People’s Liberation Army should still expect rapid US re-prioritisation towards the Indo-Pacific, particularly with regard to air and naval power.
“In a Taiwan contingency, the US could strip other theatres of naval and air assets, which would then arrive quickly,” she said.
“In total, China may perceive a narrative opening since US credibility is stretched, but there is no indication of a capability collapse.”


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A THAAD missile defense launcher sits at a US military base in Seongju, South Korea, on March 5. Photo: AFP

A THAAD interceptor launching from the Marshall Islands in 2019. The US is reportedly moving parts of its THAAD system from South Korea to the Middle East. Photo: Handout

A THAAD launch vehicle at the Seongju base in South Korea on March 5. Photo: AFP

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A launch vehicle of the THAAD system is seen at a US military base in Seongju, a town in South Korea’s southeastern province of North Gyeongsang. Photo: dpa

South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung has said the reported redeployment of US air defence systems will not significantly undermine Seoul’s deterrence against North Korea. Photo: dpa

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Li Yihu, an NPC deputy  and head of Peking University’s Institute of Taiwan Studies, says Beijing is making rapid progress in its area-denial capabilities through drills surrounding Taiwan. Photo: Simon Song

A launch vehicle of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) system pictured at a US military base in Seongju, South Korea, on March 6. Photo: AFP

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Analysts warn of a regional capability gap in the wake of US redeployment of anti-missile system to the Middle East


Analysts warn of a regional capability gap in the wake of US redeployment of anti-missile system to the Middle East.


The US is shifting THAAD from South Korea to the Mideast. What does that mean for China?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts warn of a regional capability gap in the wake of US redeployment of anti-missile system to the Middle East

Analysts warn of a regional capability gap in the wake of US redeployment of anti-missile system to the Middle East