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Seong Hyeon Choi

Sylvie Zhuang

US President Donald Trump’s proposal to boost next year’s military budget to US$1.5 trillion aims to blunt China’s global influence, a move analysts said could push Beijing to speed up its own military build-up with “greater urgency”.
On Wednesday, Trump wrote on social media that the US military budget for the 2027 financial year should be raised in the face of “very troubled and dangerous times”.
“This will allow us to build the ‘Dream Military’ that we have long been entitled to and, more importantly, that will keep us SAFE and SECURE, regardless of foe,” Trump said.
He added that his administration’s retaliatory tariffs on countries that had “ripped off” the US had brought “tremendous income” back to the US, and that Washington could “easily hit” the US$1.5 trillion figure to fund an “unparalleled” military force and pay down debt.
Washington’s defence spending is expected to be around US$1 trillion this year, including the US$900 billion military budget approved by the US Congress in December, and an additional US$150 billion under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed last year.
Trump’s proposal would be an increase of around 50 per cent – the largest-ever increase in US defence spending.

It would also clash with other Trump administration priorities, such as slashing spending in response to rising US debt. This drive led to the creation of the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), an initiative headed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
According to the US Department of the Treasury, the country’s national debt hit a record US$38 trillion in October, up US$2 trillion from a year earlier.
It remains unclear how the tariff revenue could offset the sudden increase in defence spending, given that US customs collected around US$200 billion in tariff revenue last year – about half of Trump’s proposed military budget increase.
In his social media post, Trump said he had arrived at the budget figure after “long and difficult negotiations with senators, congressmen, secretaries and other political representatives”.
The budget increase would require approval from the US Congress, which has often clashed with the Trump administration’s foreign policy and defence agendas.
Trump’s proposal appears to be aimed at building the US defence industrial base. On Wednesday, the US leader accused defence contractors of issuing “massive” shareholder dividends and conducting stock buy-backs at the expense of investment in plants and equipment.
“This situation will no longer be allowed or tolerated!” he warned.
Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Banking, said Trump’s proposal was a reaction to security concerns about the “growing Chinese military presence globally” and the narrowing technological gap between the two powers.
“Beyond the higher defence budget, it is about prioritising production and innovation rather than capital returns to keep the US military superiority and deterrence,” said Ng, who also researches defence issues.


Ng said the proposal would cause Beijing to feel “greater urgency” to increase its defence budget, especially as it grows more confident in its ability to “eventually bring Taiwan into its sphere of influence”.
He said that although China’s military spending had increased over time, the military budget’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) and government spending had remained “relatively stable”.
“The ratio will likely increase, ensuring that its military spending outweighs that of the Indo-Pacific region even more,” Ng said.
He added that China would also use critical mineral export controls to slow down Washington’s progress in the short-run.
“But economic coercion can also backfire, as it will only push the US and its allies to build a whole supply chain for critical materials for defence,” he said.
Washington has been ramping up military actions around the globe, as seen in the strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June and, more recently, the operation in Venezuela.
Trump’s latest National Security Strategy, released last month, called for a revival of the defence industrial base for a “strong, capable military” and the denial of “non-hemispheric” competitors’ ability to “position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets” near the Americas.
Early last year, Trump claimed that China controlled the Panama Canal, which connects the eastern Pacific with the Caribbean Sea, because Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison Holdings operated ports at either end.
The firm agreed in March to transfer control of both ports to a conglomerate led by US-based BlackRock, but the deal is yet to be finalised.
The US military operation on Saturday to abduct former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro – whom Trump has accused of running a narcoterrorism network – has put the administration’s western hemisphere strategy into action.


Just days after the raid in Venezuela, the White House said Trump was considering “a range of options” to acquire Greenland from Denmark, including military force.
On Sunday, Trump cited threats from China to justify a US takeover of Greenland, claiming that the island was “covered with Russian and Chinese ships”.
Beijing has increased its presence in the Arctic through its “Polar Silk Road” under the Belt and Road Initiative as well as through military cooperation with Russia in the region.
Beijing-based military commentator Song Zhongping said that Trump’s proposal for military spending was “quite fanciful” and might not get the approval of the US Congress.
“If Trump really goes through with this, other countries will likely increase their military budgets in kind, which would spark a new arms race,” said Song, a former instructor with the People’s Liberation Army.
He added it remained to be seen whether Trump was truly committed to his plan to boost military spending.
Marc Lanteigne, a professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, said Trump’s proposal could prompt Beijing to think about how it allocates its resources.
“It remains to be seen whether the United States can support such a dramatic increase in defence spending given the precarious state of the US economy, including the impact from the increase in US tariffs on American importers since last year,” he said.
“Beijing has traditionally been wary of trying to match American defence spending pound for pound, given the example of the Soviet Union, which tried to maintain military budget parity with the United States, a policy which was widely seen in China as accelerating the USSR’s demise,” Lanteigne said.
“It would not be possible for China to parallel such a massive American defence budget, but this move may prompt Beijing to rethink how and where it is allocating its own military budget, especially in the Asia-Pacific,” he said.

Trump has announced several major weapons procurement initiatives aimed at competing with China that would require a significant increase in defence spending.
These include a proposed Golden Dome air defence system, the F-47 sixth-generation fighter jet, and the new “Trump-class” battleship.
Trump has also signalled his intent to revamp the US naval shipbuilding industry with the help of allies such as South Korea and Japan.
Meanwhile, China has been growing its military capabilities with the development of two new sixth-generation fighter jets, dubbed the J-36 and the J-50, and the rapid expansion of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) forces.
Beijing unveiled two new ICBM types – the DF-31BJ and the DF-61 – during its Victory Day military parade in September.


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Analysts say Donald Trump’s military budget proposal aims to blunt China’s influence, but some dismiss the spending plan as ‘fanciful’


Analysts say Donald Trump’s military budget proposal aims to blunt China’s influence, but some dismiss the spending plan as ‘fanciful’.


Trump wants US$1.5 trillion for ‘dream US military’. Will China boost spending too?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say Donald Trump’s military budget proposal aims to blunt China’s influence, but some dismiss the spending plan as ‘fanciful’

Analysts say Donald Trump’s military budget proposal aims to blunt China’s influence, but some dismiss the spending plan as ‘fanciful’