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Amber Wang

Sylvie Zhuang

China is on a mission to turn its military into a modern fighting force. In the third of this four-part series, we look at why drones are not replacing humans on the battlefield but ‘redefining roles’.
Rapid advances in drone and robot technology in recent years are reshaping modern warfare.
From robot dogs to hi-tech drones, top military powers like China and the United States have technology that could – in the not too distant future – play important roles on the battlefield, while humans stay in command centres far away.
Five years ago, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told his generals that “unmanned operations are profoundly changing the nature of warfare” and urged the People’s Liberation Army to speed up adoption of drone technology.
Meanwhile, Washington has floated a “hellscape” strategy in Asia in which swarms of drones would be deployed around Taiwan to defend the island in the event of an attack by the PLA.
Prominent voices including Elon Musk, the SpaceX and Tesla chief, have even claimed it is now pointless to invest in advanced crewed weapon systems instead of drones, with Musk saying it was “severely undermining our national security”.
But despite the obvious advantages of autonomous weapons in reducing human casualties and costs, top military powers like China, the United States, Europe, Japan and Russia are still investing in expensive crewed systems such as sixth-generation fighter jets.
Those fighter jets would work closely with drones known as “loyal wingmen” to achieve air superiority – a model that remains an attractive investment even with the risk of AI introducing new dangers into warfare, analysts say.
China, the US and other militaries also continue to build up naval power with crewed systems like aircraft carriers to send a message of deterrence well beyond their coastlines.
And humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations, according to analysts. They say traditional systems cannot always be replaced due to limitations such as the vulnerability of drones to jamming and because of ethical dilemmas surrounding autonomous systems.
“While drones are becoming increasingly important on the battlefield and clearly augment human capabilities in powerful new ways, they have not replaced either people or traditional platforms – nor are they likely to in the near future,” said Kateryna Bondar, an AI and military expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“In air and maritime domains, where drones offer range and persistence advantages, manned platforms are still at the core. A future fighter jet may control a swarm of autonomous systems, but it will still be a jet – crewed, highly capable and central to force projection.”


Lessons from Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine has shown what drones can do in modern warfare, with both sides deploying unmanned systems on a massive scale.
Ukraine’s drones have proven effective against some of the toughest ships of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. In February last year, Ukrainian drones sank Russia’s Caesar Kunikov amphibious landing ship and Ivanovets missile corvette. A month later, Ukrainian naval drones “destroyed” the Sergei Kotov patrol ship near the Kerch Strait, which links the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency.
And on June 1 this year, more than 100 Ukrainian drones struck airbases deep inside Russia, destroying “at least 13” nuclear-capable long-range bombers in the headline-making operation dubbed “spider web”.
But Ukraine may be losing about 10,000 drones per month by some estimates, mostly due to jamming, and analysts say they are not a silver bullet.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the RAND Corporation, said while drones had been highly effective in Ukraine, their limits were clear and “manned aircraft continue to play an important niche role”.
“For example, manned aircraft can command and control drones from the air, where a commander can have a better view and understanding of the battlespace. Moreover, manned aircraft are less likely to be jammed than drones,” Heath said.
“Even so, the mix of manned an unmanned aircraft will likely shift heavily in favour of unmanned aircraft in the future.”


Bondar noted that both Ukraine and Russia had deployed drones at an unprecedented scale, “from reconnaissance quadcopters to long-range loitering munitions and naval drones”.
“However, this has not rendered conventional systems obsolete,” she said. “Despite the sophistication and scale of drone use, victory on the battlefield still depends on volume of fire, logistical sustainment and the effectiveness of combined arms operations.”
She said it was the same story for naval warfare in open waters. “Uncrewed surface and underwater vehicles offer new capabilities, but in open waters they will be controlled and coordinated from a manned vessel, which remains the strategic and command hub,” she said.
“Rather than replacing manned systems, drones are redefining roles and reshaping tactics. They extend reach, increase survivability, and allow faster adaptation. For now, and for the foreseeable future, they remain part of a broader combined system, not a substitute for it.”
‘Best of both worlds’
As they develop ever more advanced drones and more sophisticated ways to use them, militaries are also looking to what is known as manned-unmanned teaming – where humans and autonomous wingmen work together.
In the US, the F-47 sixth-gen fighter jet – part of the Next Generation Air Dominance programme – aims to be a “system of systems” with a manned aircraft at its centre controlling drones.
China is believed to be doing something similar with its sixth-gen fighters, dubbed the J-36 and J-50 and seen in unverified images on social media since December. Analysts say these advanced warplanes could also be used to fly with drones.


The PLA is also exploring the use of “loyal wingmen” drones in tandem with its J-20 stealth fighters, particularly the new two-seat J-20S.
This approach is also being pursued by Britain, Italy and Japan under their Global Combat Air Programme that brings together the Tempest and F-X fighter jet projects.
Meanwhile, the Future Combat Air System – an initiative led by France, Germany and Spain – aims to create a cutting-edge “system of systems” to underpin Europe’s air superiority into the 2040s and beyond. That includes a sixth-gen stealth fighter that will be paired with unmanned aerial vehicles known as remote carriers.
Russia – which has not officially launched a sixth-generation aircraft programme – is developing a heavy unmanned combat aerial vehicle known as Okhotnik to fly in coordination with its fifth-generation Su-57 fighter jet.
According to Bondar, manned-unmanned teaming “remains worth investing in because it combines the best of both worlds: human judgment and machine speed”.
“While drones offer scale, persistence and lower risk, they still rely on human command for strategic decision-making and moral judgment in complex and dynamic combat environments,” she added.
Heath agreed, saying the manned-unmanned approach had several advantages over ground-based control of drones.
“First, the manned aircraft is in close proximity to the drone swarm, which allows better situational awareness and understanding of the battlespace,” he said.
“Second, the closer proximity reduces risks of disruption of communication between drones and the humans controlling their operations. Ground-based command can be located a great distance from drones, which raises risks that the signal could drop or be disrupted by weather, enemy jamming, or other things.”

Retired PLA Air Force equipment expert Fu Qianshao said it was “unrealistic” to believe the fighter jets of the future would be completely uncrewed.
“In complex battle conditions, decisions are rarely black and white – there are grey areas where human judgment is crucial,” Fu said. “Machines cannot yet make those nuanced decisions.”
And for naval power projection, nothing beats an aircraft carrier. While China is developing underwater drones it continues to invest in costly warships as it builds up its naval fleet. Its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, is set to enter service this year. Its first next-gen amphibious assault ship, the Type 076, was launched in December. Both warships use an electromagnetic catapult system.
The United States is also building a new aircraft carrier to be delivered by 2029 – the USS Enterprise (CVN-80), a Gerald R. Ford-class supercarrier. France is meanwhile building the nuclear-powered PANG (Porte-Avions de Nouvelle Génération) to replace the Charles de Gaulle by the late 2030s.
Limits and ethical dilemmas
While drone swarms have already made their way onto modern battlefields, they have their limits.
“Such limitations as payload, range, communications and AI are all still very real, and each presents different types of challenges,” Bondar said.
“The more payload a drone carries, the shorter its range,” she added. “True autonomy – especially in contested, GPS-denied environments – is extremely hard to achieve.”
According to Heath, the main limitation is vulnerability to jamming. “In the Russia-Ukraine war, some drones rely on wired communications with the human controllers, but this obviously limits the range the drones can operate,” he said. “Another vulnerability is rapid and adaptive decision-making, which is where human pilots excel.”
Fu also pointed to the gap in judgment. “Drones cannot yet reach the same level of intelligence as manned aircraft,” he said. “Autonomous targeting can lead to misjudgments – even attacking civilians by mistake. For now, decision-making cannot be handed over to cold machines. Humans must continue to supervise and control drones.”
Military use of drones also poses ethical challenges.
“AI-driven decision-making is not advancing rapidly among the world’s major military powers, nor should it be,” Bondar said.
“The real challenge ahead is not just technical, but ethical and institutional … in this sense, the question is less about how far AI can go, and more about how far we should let it go – and who gets to decide that.”
Thorsten Jelinek, Europe director and senior fellow at the Taihe Institute and an expert on artificial intelligence, argued that international guard rails were urgently needed.
“It could be an agreement on how to restrict AI for combat or at least inform the other side about capabilities,” he said.
The United Nations has called for progress on a global framework to regulate the use of autonomous weapons, with negotiations aiming to produce a set of guiding principles as early as next year.
Jelinek said that was a first step towards responsibly managing new AI-empowered weapons.


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While autonomous weapons have advantages, analysts say humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations


While autonomous weapons have advantages, analysts say humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations.


.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}While autonomous weapons have advantages, analysts say humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations

While autonomous weapons have advantages, analysts say humans will remain central to decision-making and combat operations