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Seong Hyeon Choi

China is on a mission to turn its military into a modern fighting force. In this four-part series, we look at the rapid transformation of the People’s Liberation Army, starting with changing perceptions of its capabilities.
A decade ago, China held a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II. Back then, the People’s Liberation Army was seen as no match for the United States military in the Indo-Pacific.
But with an ambitious modernisation effort under way, that view is changing.
China has set three broad goals for the PLA: to make “significant progress” on information warfare, military mechanisation and strategic projection by 2027; for the modernisation to be “basically complete” by 2035; and for the military to be “world class” by 2049 – 100 years after the Communist Party took power.
While these goals are deliberately vague, the common understanding is that the ultimate 2049 target – set out by President Xi Jinping in 2017 – is for China to be on a par with the US.
The world could get some indication of just how far the PLA has come in September, when Beijing brings out the big guns for another military parade, this time for the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
According to analysts, after a decade of rapid advances, China is now seen as a comparable military power by the US and its Indo-Pacific allies thanks to its advanced weapons and industrial support.
But they say China is being held back from becoming a leading arms provider by factors including geopolitics.


‘Dramatic shift’
As the military modernisation has ramped up, so too has defence spending, going from US$145 billion in 2015 to US$249 billion in 2025.
While that is not a huge increase given the gap with the US military – whose defence budget was more than three times China’s in both of those years – it is significant. That is because China has reduced its reliance on arms imports and is instead producing its own advanced weaponry at lower cost.
The Pentagon’s annual report to Congress on China’s military and security developments in 2015 described the PLA as having “limited” capabilities in the Indo-Pacific despite “rapidly closing gaps” with the West.
In its 2024 report, the Pentagon said China’s military build-up was a “pacing challenge” and its growing capabilities and modernisation strengthened its ability to “fight and win wars” against the US, counter an intervention by a third party in a conflict on its periphery, and project power globally.
That change is also seen in public opinion. A 2016 Gallup poll found 41 per cent of Americans saw China’s military as a “critical threat” to the US. That had increased to 63 per cent in 2024.
Gallup polling also found that the proportion of Americans who saw the conflict between Beijing and Taipei as a critical threat to the US went from 30 per cent in 2021 to 50 per cent last year.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.


Bence Nemeth, a senior lecturer in defence studies and executive director of the King’s Centre for Defence Economics and Management at King’s College London, said perceptions of China’s military capabilities had changed “markedly” in the past decade.
He said the PLA had been seen as large but relatively outdated compared to Western militaries in 2015. Now it had “either reached or is nearing military parity” with the US in the Indo-Pacific in areas like naval ship numbers, missile coverage and regional force projection.
“While the PLA remains far from matching US global reach and still lags behind in areas such as nuclear submarines, carrier aviation and combat experience, regional parity in key domains is either within reach or already achieved,” Nemeth said.
“This represents a dramatic shift from 10 years ago.”
Yuan Jingdong, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s China and Asia security programme, noted that the rapid military modernisation under Xi’s leadership included organisational restructuring, procurement of new weapons systems, training and establishing overseas bases.
“Countries with specific territorial disputes – from India, Japan, to a number of Southeast Asian countries, not to mention Taiwan – are becoming worried given the potential for conflict,” Yuan said. “As a result, their perceptions of China have shifted to view it as posing security threats and, in comparison, see their own military capabilities falling behind.”
Ships to satellites
That shifting view is based on new-generation aircraft, growing naval power with major surface battleships and more advanced submarines, as well as space capabilities, according to Yuan.
“All of these have witnessed marked progress, significantly uplifting PLA warfighting capabilities, and changing the regional balance of power to China’s advantage,” he said.
Even though Xi Jinping may be reluctant to start a war one cannot rule out the possibility that his successor could prove more aggressive and reckless
Timothy Heath, Rand Corporation
Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher at the US-based Rand Corporation, said a number of Chinese military developments would be raising concern in the Pentagon.
They included the PLA’s anti-ship and anti-air missile capabilities and inventories, modernisation of the air force and navy, hypersonic missiles and systemic reforms that improved its ability to “use all of its weaponry in an integrated, joint fashion”.
“The weapons are capable and dangerous and even though Xi Jinping may be reluctant to start a war, one cannot rule out the possibility that his successor could prove more aggressive and reckless,” Heath added.
The vast industrial output behind China’s military build-up and sophisticated weaponry is also part of its strength.
Nemeth said the “most concerning” areas for the US and its allies were China’s navy, air force and rocket force capabilities – all of which had made “remarkable improvements”.
“If you listen to senior officers in the US Navy, Air Force and Space Force, their concern is evident, not only about the pace at which China is advancing, but also the industrial capacity behind it,” Nemeth said.
“The speed with which China is able to design, build and field ships, missiles, aircraft and satellites has outpaced many Western expectations and Western capacities. The scale of production, combined with increasingly advanced systems, has caused significant concern among Western defence officials.”
According to the 2024 Pentagon report, China has the largest navy in the world by fleet size, with a battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants. It aims to have six aircraft carriers in service by 2035, with the third one – the Fujian – currently in sea trials.
The US Navy had fewer than 300 vessels as of 2024, and the gap with China is expected to widen in the coming years.
The Pentagon report said the PLA Navy was expanding its ability to operate beyond the “first island chain” that runs from Japan to the South China Sea and was conducting exercises in the Philippine Sea on the strategically important eastern side of Taiwan.




It said the air force and naval air force together constituted the “largest aviation forces” in the Indo-Pacific and the third-largest in the world, with more than 3,150 aircraft – some 2,400 of them combat aircraft.
The Pentagon report also said China had an estimated 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles as of 2023 and had “probably completed” construction of three solid-propellant silo fields as of 2022.
It estimated China’s nuclear stockpile had surpassed 600 operational warheads last year and would reach more than 1,000 by 2030 – most of them “deployed at higher readiness levels”, meaning they could be launched at any time.
Liselotte Odgaard, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said China’s nuclear capabilities were “still small, but they are quickly expanding”.
“In the field of autonomous systems, they are capable at a great power level and constitute a significant threat,” she said.
“It is fair to say that China still lags behind the US, but it is getting the capabilities to match the US in the future, possibly as soon as within 10 to 20 years, which means that something has to be done now if the US and its allies wish to stay ahead.”
According to Yuan from SIPRI, China’s nuclear build-up is being closely watched – especially its medium-range ballistic missiles like the DF-26, DF-17 and shorter range DF-21 that carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.
But he noted that the Chinese military had not been put to the test in real combat for decades. “The PLA is not battle-tested since its 1979 brief encounter [with Vietnam] – not a good one to say the least – in comparison to the US military, which has been in military conflicts one way or another for the past two decades,” Yuan said.
There are also limits to gauging how far the PLA has progressed on weapons development since it rarely makes public any details and analysts often have to rely on satellite imagery and photos and videos circulating on social media.
“But the long-term trend appears to be clear, with military-civil fusion, investments, and China’s growing technological and industrial [and] manufacturing capabilities, there will be more advanced, better weapons systems being produced,” Yuan said.
He added that with further adjustment and adaptation the PLA’s combat potential would “steadily improve”.


Arms exports
While the main motivation behind the PLA modernisation programme is to boost its capabilities, it has also led China to take a bigger role in the global arms market.
Arms sales help to provide the huge funding needed for the modernisation drive, but they also serve as a tool for military diplomacy, and they help to establish global defence standards that align with its strategic interests.
China has expanded its market share in recent years, especially in the Middle East, South Asia and Southeast Asia. It was the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter – after the US, France and Russia – from 2020 to 2024, according to data compiled by SIPRI.
Pakistan is one of its biggest buyers, accounting for 63 per cent of China’s total arms exports in that five-year period.
During a conflict with India in May, Pakistan reportedly shot down Indian Air Force fighter jets with Chinese-made J-10C aircraft and missiles – their first successful mission in live combat.
That could drive more sales of the Chinese fighter jet and weapons systems.
At present, Pakistan is the only known operator of J-10Cs outside China. It ordered 36 of the export variant in 2020, with at least 20 of the jets reportedly in service in Pakistan after the first delivery in 2022.
There has also been speculation that Egypt could be considering buying the J-10C after an Egyptian pilot was seen on board one of the fighter jets during a joint drill in May.
Odgaard said China was selling more arms to developing countries seeking alternatives to weapons produced in the West.
“Weapons sales are also political, so as China has increased its influence in regions such as Africa and the Middle East, it has also increased its weapons sales,” she said.
“China also offers fairly low-cost weapons, for example for armies, that suit the needs of many developing nations.”
Odgaard said China was expanding its influence in West Africa and aimed to gain access to the Atlantic Ocean.
“For many developing countries, US-China strategic competition is seen as good news that allows many of them to cooperate with both without choosing sides, at least so far, and for China, this has meant that their weapons export has gone up to these countries,” Odgaard said.
“Countries that remain US allies, such as most European countries and Indo-Pacific allies such as ROK [Republic of Korea], Japan and Australia, would not want to invest in Chinese weapons, but China also most likely would not want to export advanced weapons to most of these countries.”
Many countries are expanding their defence spending precisely because of concerns about China’s growing military power
Bence Nemeth, King’s College London
Despite its advances in arms technology, China has struggled to make headway in markets like Europe, which is grappling with the threat from Russia after it invaded Ukraine.
Geopolitics is one factor in the way of China increasing arms sales – in particular the view that it poses a challenge to the US in the Indo-Pacific.
Nemeth from King’s College London said while there was a shifting perception about Chinese military capabilities it was likely to help arms exports more “in the medium term than immediately”.
“The idea that Chinese weapon systems are closing the gap with Western platforms has gained traction only relatively recently, and it will take time before that perception translates into actual deals,” he said.
“Broader market penetration will depend not only on the continued improvement of Chinese systems but also on how they are perceived in terms of reliability, political risk and combat performance.
“As the perception of quality and credibility improves, we may well see Chinese systems become more competitive in price-sensitive and politically non-aligned markets.”
He said there were “clear structural and geopolitical constraints on China’s arms export potential” as it was now seen as a strategic competitor by much of the West, “significantly” limiting its ability to sell to countries increasing their defence budgets, especially in Europe.
“Political considerations, along with concerns about interoperability with Nato standards, effectively rule out Chinese weapons in those markets,” he said.
“In Asia, the situation is similarly complex. Many countries are expanding their defence spending precisely because of concerns about China’s growing military power, making them unlikely to turn to Beijing as an arms supplier.”


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The PLA’s ‘remarkable improvements’ in the past decade are closing the gap with the US, but geopolitics could hold back Chinese arms sales


The PLA’s ‘remarkable improvements’ in the past decade are closing the gap with the US, but geopolitics could hold back Chinese arms sales.


.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The PLA’s ‘remarkable improvements’ in the past decade are closing the gap with the US, but geopolitics could hold back Chinese arms sales

The PLA’s ‘remarkable improvements’ in the past decade are closing the gap with the US, but geopolitics could hold back Chinese arms sales