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Hayley Wong

In sending two aircraft carriers to the western Pacific concurrently for the first time, Beijing is learning to coordinate the vessels in open ocean, a tactic it would likely use to deter US forces in a Taiwan conflict, according to defence analysts.
The two carriers – the Liaoning and Shandong – were spotted in the waters, having entered the western Pacific via separate courses over the past two weeks.
They are believed to have practised dispersing, concentrating and communicating in the complex high-seas area.
By Friday, Chinese military authorities had not yet declared an end to the exercise.


The operation is the first time a Chinese carrier has crossed the strategic second island chain. Stretching from Japan through Guam to Papua New Guinea, the second island chain is a notional defensive perimeter for the United States and its allies to contain China during potential conflicts.
Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia Engagement at the US think tank Defence Priorities, said the exercise could be about giving its forces more experience in open seas rather than preparing them for a specific scenario.
“I imagine that much of what is going on is familiarising commanders and crews with such conditions, including the ability to communicate, as well as the important capability to undertake stealth operations or, in other words, to get lost as much as possible in the big ocean for the purpose of misleading the enemy,” he said.
But the days-long operation could “amount to practice for a counter-intervention strategy” in a conflict over Taiwan, he said.
The eventual counter-intervention strategy could include specific missions, such as observing and deterring US water surface and air forces or, alternatively, more aggressive courses of action, such as striking Guam directly or “playing bait” to pull or distract US forces away from the Taiwan Strait, he said.
The deployment of the Liaoning and its simultaneous presence with the Shandong in the western Pacific were first reported by Japan. Tokyo’s Joint Staff Department has confirmed take-off and landing activities on the carriers.
A stand-off occurred during the operation on Saturday, when China sent a J-15 fighter from the Shandong to chase Japan’s P-3C patrol aircraft on reconnaissance duty in the Pacific.
Tokyo accused the Chinese fighter of being “abnormally close” to its aircraft, while Beijing defended its actions and accused Japanese vessels and aircraft of conducting close reconnaissance of China’s military activities.
Goldstein suggested close encounters with another military’s craft might be viewed by China as enhancing its training.
He said Chinese forces “likely welcome any and all contacts with both Japanese and US ships, since such interactions can help them to develop an operational picture of the adversary and related doctrines they might confront in wartime”.
The Liaoning entered the western Pacific via the Miyako Strait on May 25, while the Shandong entered via the Bashi Channel last week.


The Miyako Strait lies between the Japanese islands of Miyako and Okinawa, while the Bashi Channel separates Taiwan from the Philippines. They are both important waterways in the first island chain.
According to Japan’s defence ministry, the Liaoning was spotted beyond the second island chain near Minamitori Island, a remote Japanese island in the Pacific, on June 7, marking the first time a Chinese carrier was known to be operating beyond the second island chain.
Hong Kong-based military observer Liang Guoliang said satellite data indicated that the two carriers were about a thousand kilometres apart during the week, a distance meant to maximise their effectiveness in the blue water.
“There is no doubt that the two carriers have practised strategies for two carriers to be coordinated,” Liang said. “This also marked a relatively formal start of counter-intervention exercises in [the] western Pacific … which targets the Taiwan issue.”
Liang said the carrier groups – involving frigates and fighter jets – were likely to practise diverse formations for air, surface and underwater combat in the high seas, and expected such exercises to be conducted at least annually in the future.
Maritime exercises on the high sea areas are permitted under international law. The US carrier George Washington has been operating off the coast of Japan’s Kyushu island since Tuesday, a deployment expected to run until Monday, while the USS Nimitz Carrier Strike Group has been conducting routine flight operations in the South China Sea since Wednesday.
China has two active carriers and its first catapult-launch carrier, the Fujian, is expected to join the fleet by the end of the year. The US, in comparison, is estimated to have 50, including 11 nuclear-powered catapult-launch carriers.
Amid the push for military modernisation in recent years, China has also developed longer-range combat aircraft capable of supporting blue-water missions.
Goldstein from Defence Priorities said that besides operational goals, “deterrence is likely a major Chinese strategic goal” of the dual-carrier exercise.
“With a show of force, they can demonstrate that the PLA can extend its operations into the mid-Pacific and, for a time anyhow, try to hold intervening forces away from Taiwan. Another subtext could be that they are daring or practising daring US or Japanese forces to intervene directly against a rising, nuclear-armed superpower,” he said.


Goldstein added that while the carriers might have high symbolic, or even deterrence, value, “submarines and increasingly drones are likely to determine future naval victories” in actual combat.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of its territory to be reunited with the mainland and has not ruled out the use of force to take over the self-ruled island.
Most countries, including the US, do not consider Taiwan an independent state but are opposed to changes to the status quo. Washington is committed to equipping Taiwan with arms for self-defence.
The US has long held a policy of strategic ambiguity about whether it will come to Taiwan’s defence if it comes under attack.


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PLA is coordinating carriers in the blue-water arena, a tactic it would likely use to deter US forces in a Taiwan conflict, analysts say


PLA is coordinating carriers in the blue-water arena, a tactic it would likely use to deter US forces in a Taiwan conflict, analysts say.


What does China’s military gain from operating 2 aircraft carriers in second island chain?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}PLA is coordinating carriers in the blue-water arena, a tactic it would likely use to deter US forces in a Taiwan conflict, analysts say

PLA is coordinating carriers in the blue-water arena, a tactic it would likely use to deter US forces in a Taiwan conflict, analysts say