Will Trump’s tariffs lead to an emboldened Beijing in the Taiwan Strait?

US involvement and sanctions will already be part of planning for any actions towards Taipei by mainland China, observers say

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Beijing has doubled down on its hard line on Taiwan since the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party took over the island’s leadership and increased arms purchases from the US. Photo: CCTV

Published: 8:00am, 12 Apr 2025Updated: 6:18pm, 12 Apr 2025

The record American tariffs imposed on Beijing could serve as a stress test for its ability to withstand Western economic pressure in the event of a crisis in the Taiwan Strait such as armed conflict, analysts have said.

But they also cautioned that any final call to action relating to Taiwan remained a complex political and military decision for Beijing, which regards the island as part of China, to be reunited by force if necessary.

“If the current tariff is sustained, and China is able to weather this difficult period, it will definitely boost Beijing’s confidence in facing potential Western sanctions in a future cross-strait war,” said international relations professor Zhiqun Zhu, from Bucknell University in Pennsylvania.

“Regardless, Beijing has already taken US involvement and sanctions into account when preparing for the Taiwan scenario. The significance of any additional tariffs will be marginal.”

Washington has imposed tariffs of 145 per cent on Chinese imports so far, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156 per cent – close to the punitive amount President Donald Trump previously threatened if Beijing were to attack Taiwan.

Like most countries, the United States does not regard self-governed Taiwan as an independent state. However, Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo and is committed to supplying arms for the island’s defence.