Taiwan fears that PLA drills may escalate into real attack ‘with no time to respond’

Regular large-scale exercises from mainland China’s military have prompted warnings that the island’s military must stay alert to the risk

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Taiwan has warned its armed forces to remain alert during PLA exercises. Photo: EPA-EFE

Published: 8:00pm, 6 Apr 2025Updated: 8:01pm, 6 Apr 2025

Mainland China’s regular large-scale joint combat drills around Taiwan are fuelling fears that one day a military exercise could escalate into a real attack by the People’s Liberation Army.

More troubling for the island is the growing concern over whether its military would be able to respond quickly enough, as the PLA continues its strategy of gradually eroding buffer zones.

One former Taiwanese air force commander warned that warplanes could reach Taipei within three minutes of crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait, too quick for the island’s air force to respond.

The PLA has conducted six large-scale exercises since August 2022 featuring complex manoeuvres, simulated amphibious landings, precision strikes and combined operations that resemble actual combat scenarios.

Its latest drills on Tuesday featured simulated strikes from multiple directions, as well as encirclement, blockade and area control exercises.

“The scale and complexity of these drills suggest that the PLA is building operational familiarity with an attack scenario,” said Arthur Chi, a military analyst at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, a government think tank.