Japan sends message to Beijing on ‘significant costs’ of Taiwan Strait attack

Tokyo is reportedly considering deploying long-range missiles to Kyushu, a move analyst says could deny Chinese ships access to the Pacific

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Japan is considering deploying an upgraded version of its Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile to Kyushu, which would be able to reach both North Korea and the Chinese coast. Photo: Handout

Published: 10:00am, 22 Mar 2025Updated: 12:59pm, 22 Mar 2025

Tokyo’s plan to deploy long-range missiles in the southwest of the country has the Taiwan Strait and North Korea in mind, and it could also deny Chinese navy vessels access to the Pacific, analysts say.

Japanese news agency Kyodo reported on Sunday that Tokyo was considering deploying the missiles on the southwestern island of Kyushu to strengthen “counterstrike capabilities” against enemy targets if a conflict arose.

The report, citing Japanese government sources, said the deployment was likely to take place in March 2026 as part of efforts to improve the security of the Nansei Islands – an archipelago also known as the Ryukyus. Kyushu is part of the island chain which has strategic importance for its proximity to Taiwan.

Tokyo is assessing possible sites in Kyushu for the deployment, according to Kyodo. It said the Japan Ground Self-Defence Force surface-to-ship missile regiment garrisons in Yufu in Oita prefecture and the city of Kumamoto were two likely candidates.

The missiles to be deployed are an upgraded version of Japan’s Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile, with an extended range of 1,000km (620 miles). That would put both North Korea and the Chinese coast within reach from Kyushu.

Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at the International Christian University in Tokyo, said Japan was sending a message that there would be “significant costs” if Beijing launched a military operation across the Taiwan Strait, or in and around the Diaoyu Islands. The Diaoyus – known in Japan as the Senkakus – are a group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea claimed by both China and Japan.

Nagy said Tokyo was trying to show Washington that it takes security seriously and is shouldering its fair share of the burden within the alliance, and that it was also concerned about Beijing’s activities in the region including military drills around Taiwan and grey-zone operations.