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Amber Wang

China’s potential peacekeeping role in post-war Ukraine may provide Beijing with an opportunity to expand its influence and military training – but it could also backfire, experts say.
Until recently it might have seemed unthinkable for Chinese military forces to be present in Europe, but a potential plan is being discussed in which Beijing could send peacekeeping forces to Ukraine after a ceasefire in its war with Russia.
Retired Senior Colonel Zhou Bo, who has been involved in China’s UN peacekeeping operations, was one of the Chinese analysts who raised the possibility with the South China Morning Post.
It was also suggested by American officials, according to a report by The Economist this month.


The plan was neither acknowledged nor refuted by Chinese authorities when asked about it.
If such a deployment were to occur, it would mark an unprecedented presence of Chinese peacekeeping forces – primarily military personnel – on the European continent.
Some Chinese analysts have argued it would be a significant display of China’s growing global influence, as well as an opportunity to solidify its international image and further train its troops, while others said the risks might outweigh the benefits.
Zhou suggested that China might be able to deploy peacekeeping troops, with the consent of both Ukraine and Russia, to help uphold any negotiated ceasefire.
China could collaborate with non-Nato countries, such as India, without invoking Russia’s concerns over European involvement. Any deployment would need to be carried out under the framework of the United Nations, said Zhou, who is now a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University.
China is currently the second-largest financial contributor to UN peacekeeping and the eighth-largest contributor of troops.
According to the UN peacekeeping website, by the end of September 2024 China had 1,792 personnel deployed, including 1,711 troops and a smaller number of police and staff officers. Nepal ranks first with 6,125 personnel, while the US has only 22 individual peacekeepers despite being the largest financial contributor to UN peacekeeping operations.
In 2015, Chinese President Xi Jinping made a notable pledge at the UN General Assembly, offering 8,000 troops to reinforce UN peacekeeping missions.
China maintains active deployments in places such as Lebanon and South Sudan.
“The character of UN peacekeeping is that it has a clear mandate. If both sides consent, and the UN consents, there will be no adverse effects,” Zhou said, emphasising the importance of the UN’s peacekeeping principles, including the consent of all parties involved and impartiality.
Zhou argued that it would be “beneficial to China’s image, demonstrate international responsibility and showcase China’s peaceful rise”.
One analyst in Shanghai suggested that China’s first presence in Europe would represent a significant opportunity for multilateral engagement.
“China and other countries conducting peacekeeping operations under the UN framework could foster interaction and integration among all parties,” the analyst said.
However, some Chinese analysts have cautioned against such a move. One source who requested anonymity described it as “wading into troubled waters” and said it would spark new concerns about Beijing’s close ties with Moscow.
“China hasn’t even clarified the nature of this war over the past three years. Ukraine also wouldn’t agree to China participating in peacekeeping – they would question whether China is a neutral party,” said the analyst who specialises in China-Russia relations in Beijing.
In the past two weeks, the prospect of an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has evolved dramatically, starting with a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was followed by high-level talks between the two sides in Saudi Arabia that notably excluded Ukraine and European countries from the discussions.
Trump’s team has already stated that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is “an unrealistic objective”.
Britain and France are reportedly developing a plan to deploy up to 30,000 European peacekeepers in Ukraine with US backing, if Moscow and Kyiv reach a ceasefire deal, according to The Wall Street Journal.


Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called the presence of European peacekeepers in Ukraine “unacceptable” following talks with the US in Riyadh.
Since the war began in February 2022, China has refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Beijing has been accused of supplying dual-use goods to support Putin’s war effort, drawing criticism from the West and further straining European-China relations.
“There’s no benefit to participating in peacekeeping,” said Yang Shu, former director of the Institute for Central Asian Studies at Lanzhou University in China.
“[China’s] reputation is already tarnished due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. If you go there now, people might question why you didn’t act to prevent the war, but now you’re only coming in after a ceasefire,” he said.
“And if that ceasefire favours Russia, will people think you’re just there to shield Russia?”
Yang said he believed it was premature to discuss Chinese peacekeeping efforts while the war was ongoing, with China not a party to the conflict and unable to make decisions unilaterally about the peacekeeping mission.


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Ukraine war

China could take peacekeeping role in post-war Ukraine – but at what cost?

Last year,  China had 1,792 personnel deployed to the UN peacekeeping force, including 1,711 troops as well as police and staff officers. Photo: Simon Song

Chinese envoy urges ‘favourable atmosphere’ for Ukraine peace after UN resolution vote

Fu Cong, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, votes in the UN Security Council on Monday at the UN headquarters in New York. Photo: AP 

Europe talks up more defence spending, but split over peacekeeping forces in Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Paris on Monday. Photo: Reuters

A Russian soldier fires a howitzer toward Ukrainian positions in an undisclosed location in Ukraine in 2024. File photo: Russian Defence Ministry Press Service via AP

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Photo: AFP

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arriving in Saudi Arabia. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry via AFP 

UK foreign secretary questions Russia’s ‘appetite’ for peace at South Africa G20 meeting

UK Foreign Minister David Lammy attends the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting at the Nasrec Expo Centre in Johannesburg, South Africa on Thursday. Photo: AFP

Members of the delegations led by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attend a meeting on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Thursday. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry / Handout via Reuters

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, shakes hands with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the G20 summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Thursday. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry / Handout via Reuters

China backs ‘all efforts aimed at peace’ in Ukraine, ready for constructive role

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on the sidelines of the G20 gathering in Johannesburg, South Africa on Thursday. Photo: Xinhua

Russia’s foreign ministry praised the development of “political dialogue and practical cooperation” after the top Russian and Chinese diplomats met in South Africa on Thursday. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry / AFP

Can China still play a role as peacemaker in Ukraine after US-Russia talks?

China has sought to position itself as a peacemaker. Photo: AFP

A destoyed residential building is seen after a Russian air strike in Kherson, Ukraine, in this photo released on Thurday. Photo: Ukrainian State Emergency Service Press Service handout via AFP

News

China

Military

Retired senior colonel says it may ‘showcase China’s peaceful rise’ but analyst warns it could also raise new concerns over ties with Russia


Retired senior colonel says it may ‘showcase China’s peaceful rise’ but analyst warns it could also raise new concerns over ties with Russia.
