Can South China Sea conflict between Washington and Beijing be avoided?

This story is part of an ongoing series on US-China relations produced jointly by the South China Morning Post and POLITICO, with reporting from Asia and the United States.

Rising tensions over Beijing’s accelerating military build-up in the South China Sea are stoking fears of a major-power clash between China and the United States – fuelling urgent calls for new security talks before the two nations stumble into a shooting war.

But the worries come amid a dearth of official dialogue between two of the world’s largest militaries, and as US leaders espouse an increasingly harder line against China’s actions.

The US and its allies have stepped up naval and air patrols over the sea and cancelled joint exercises with Beijing, while China is considering requiring all aircraft flying over the area to first identify themselves – a step that many nations would consider threatening.

Military experts say the showdown could easily spin out of control.

“Chinese colleagues have said to me explicitly that if the US continues to sail through and overfly what they see as their waters, China will eventually shoot down the offending aircraft,” said Matthew Kroenig, a former CIA analyst and Pentagon strategist.