appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Alyssa Chen

With bilateral ties in a deep freeze since late last year, a flurry of planned China visits by Japanese lawmakers and business leaders has been interpreted as an attempt to break the ice ahead of November’s Apec summit in China.
However, analysts warned that these efforts to carve out a diplomatic opening with Beijing might not achieve much unless Tokyo sends a clearer signal to mend ties from the very top.
Relations reached their lowest point in a decade following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remarks last November that a Taiwan contingency could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” that could allow Tokyo to exercise collective self-defence.
An eight-member cross-party delegation of junior lawmakers led by the Liberal Democratic Party’s Masahiro Takamura is visiting Beijing this week.
Meanwhile, Keidanren – Japan’s largest business lobby – and the Osaka-based Kansai Economic Federation are also planning China trips in the coming months.
Later this month, former Japanese foreign minister Takeshi Iwaya will lead a high-profile delegation from the Japan Association for the Promotion of International Trade, which is seeking to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.
These efforts are not going to lead to much unless there is a clear message from the very top – that is, the prime minister or her cabinet – to make proactive efforts to mend ties
Rintaro Nishimura, senior associate at The Asia Group
Rintaro Nishimura, a senior associate at The Asia Group strategic advisory firm, noted that Beijing probably viewed progress as requiring clearer signals from Japan’s top leadership.
“These efforts are not going to lead to much unless there is a clear message from the very top – that is, the prime minister or her cabinet – to make proactive efforts to mend ties,” he said.
“Diet members and business delegations seem to be trying to create that opening, but Beijing is also drawing a clear line between the Japanese government and other actors.”
“These successive visits are largely intended to lay the groundwork and break the ice for a potential meeting between Takaichi and Xi in November,” said Wang Guangtao, deputy director of the Centre for Japanese Studies at Fudan University.
Takaichi is expected to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering in Shenzhen in mid-November, but whether she will secure a meeting with Xi remains uncertain.
Wang said he was sceptical about the effectiveness of the business and lawmaker visits given the depth of deterioration in China-Japan relations and the gravity of what he called Takaichi’s “erroneous remarks” on Taiwan.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US and Japan, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Wang added that it was unclear whether these delegations had received a mandate from Takaichi or her cabinet, or whether the prime minister even wanted them to visit China now.
The fragile limits of parliamentary diplomacy were exposed in late August when a group of Japanese lawmakers met Lu Kang, vice-minister of the Communist Party’s International Department.
According to a statement from the department, Lu told the delegation that history and Taiwan were at the centre of tensions between the two nations, and Tokyo needed to take “concrete actions” to improve ties.
Lu added that he hoped Japanese politicians could urge their leadership to learn from history and handle the issue “honestly and faithfully in accordance with the one-China principle”.
Toru Horiuchi, a China-Japan relations expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, noted that while these visits helped keep communication channels open, Japanese lawmakers “have not been able to meet with anybody in the Chinese leadership, and business delegations so far have been rather small”.
He suggested watching who from the Chinese side would meet the delegation led by Iwaya – who is viewed as more China-friendly – as a potential sign of Beijing’s willingness to accept greater political contact with Japan.
“China still demands that Takaichi retract her remark on Taiwan and continues to put pressure on Japan,” Horiuchi said. “So as long as Japan does not compromise in some way, a major breakthrough is unlikely.”


During the 2014 Apec summit in Beijing, Shinzo Abe, Japanese prime minister at the time, had an ice-breaking meeting with Xi following a two-year freeze triggered by territorial disputes and Abe’s visit to the Yasukuni Shrine.
Before that meeting, former prime minister Yasuo Fukuda went to China on a “secret mission” to ease a rapprochement and deliver Abe’s request for dialogue.
But Wang said a similar breakthrough was out of reach today because the current rift was centred on Taiwan – a “red line” on which Beijing allows no compromise.
“Both sides lack intermediaries with sufficient political capital and a foundation of mutual trust,” he added.
According to observers, a deeper structural problem compounds the difficulties facing Beijing-Tokyo ties: a generation gap in Japan’s vital conduits to China.
Older politicians such as Yohei Kono – who died in June – and Toshihiro Nikai previously wielded considerable influence within the Liberal Democratic Party and maintained long-standing trust with Chinese counterparts.
The LDP’s former junior coalition partner Komeito, which positions itself as a party of peace and acted as a bridge between China and Japan, is no longer in government.
“The major problem we’re facing now is that as this cohort of older-generation ‘China-knowledgeable’ politicians collectively exits the political stage, the younger generation has not done a good job in maintaining continuity in communication channels,” said Wang of Fudan University, describing it as an “alarming gap”.
Nishimura noted that Japanese politicians today faced mounting domestic pressure that made China engagement politically perilous.
“With sentiment towards China souring in Japan, it is becoming increasingly challenging for lawmakers to visit China or engage with Chinese stakeholders without being seen as ‘too cosy’ with Beijing or under Beijing’s influence.”
He said this perception carried huge political costs, potentially damaging their standing within the LDP and alienating voters.
“The recent acceptance of business and Diet member delegations suggests that Beijing is keen to gauge how Tokyo is thinking about China engagement and to encourage these delegations to communicate back to Tokyo that it needs to make efforts to re-engage Beijing, not the other way around,” he said.


How will the Okinawa governor’s race result reshape China’s local messaging?

How Okinawa’s political shift could make Japan more prepared for a Taiwan contingency

Japanese delegations flock to China, but thaw hinges on Takaichi mending ties

Japan eyes quantum sub-hunting drone sensors as China extends undersea reach

China-Japan relations

The Apec Economic Leaders’ Meeting will be held in Shenzhen, China in mid-November. Photo: Xinhua 

Japan lawmakers to visit China in bid to cool row, but thaw unlikely: experts

One analyst in China says an expected visit by a Japanese delegation implies that in Tokyo “there are still political forces that hope to manage differences through dialogue and restore exchanges”. Photo: Shutterstock

China slams Japanese officials’ visit to Yasukuni Shrine on WWII anniversary

Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi (centre) visits the controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo on August 15. Photo: Kyodo

The Yasukuni Shrine has long been a source of diplomatic tension between Japan and its neighbours. Photo: Reuters

Japan’s WEGO fashion brand is latest firm to feel force of Chinese consumer backlash

WEGO’s manga-themed collaboration has triggered a backlash in China. Photo: WEGO

The clothing brand, which has been expanding its presence in China, has been hit by calls for a boycott. Photo: WEGO

How Japan is digging in to deter – and withstand – a conflict over Taiwan

Illustration: Brian Wang

Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force is expanding its capabilities and strengthening coordination with the US and other partners as Tokyo prepares for the prospect of conflict in the region. Photo: Kyodo News via AP

Japan Ground Self-Defence Force soldiers observe a Type 88 surface-to-ship missile launcher, during joint military exercises with the US and the Philippines in Ilocos Norte province, northern Philippines, in May. Photo: Reuters

Type 90 battle tanks of the Ground Self-Defence Force take part in a live-fire exercise in Shizuoka prefecture, central Japan, in June. Photo: AFP

The USS George Washington carrier strike group and Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force vessels sail in formation during the Valiant Shield exercise in the Philippine Sea in June. Photo: Handout

Japan’s recent purchase of a former Nippon Steel site in Kure, Hiroshima prefecture, to build a sprawling new defence hub points to a deeper shift in Tokyo’s preparations for a potential Taiwan conflict. Photo: Google Earth

News

China

Diplomacy

Visits by Japanese lawmakers and business groups aim to ease ties ahead of Apec summit, but experts say Tokyo must send clearer signal


Visits by Japanese lawmakers and business groups aim to ease ties ahead of Apec summit, but experts say Tokyo must send clearer signal.


Japanese delegations flock to China, but thaw hinges on Takaichi mending ties

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Visits by Japanese lawmakers and business groups aim to ease ties ahead of Apec summit, but experts say Tokyo must send clearer signal

Visits by Japanese lawmakers and business groups aim to ease ties ahead of Apec summit, but experts say Tokyo must send clearer signal