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Fan Chen

Routine Chinese activities are increasingly being framed as threats by Indian intelligence agencies, raising the risk of New Delhi miscalculating and taking “unilateral countermeasures” against Beijing, a Chinese academic has warned.
India has stepped up intelligence-gathering as ties with neighbouring China turned sour in recent years, according to Zhao Ruoxi, a researcher with the Macau University of Science and Technology.
Zhao made the remarks in a paper analysing India’s intelligence operations focused on China from 2020 to 2026. It was published on July 31 in the Chinese-language Journal of Intelligence, run by the Shaanxi Institute of Science and Technology Information.
According to Zhao, China’s political and economic footprint in South Asia, its focus on emerging technologies, and naval activities in the Indian Ocean have all come under more scrutiny from India since a border clash in 2020.
That confrontation in the Galwan Valley killed 20 Indian and four Chinese troops, plunging relations between the two nations to a historic low.




Zhao said India had broadened its intelligence-gathering toolkit in recent years, using space-based reconnaissance, drone surveillance and cyber intelligence to build a multi-agency network against China.
India also teamed up with the United States and Middle Eastern countries so that it could track Chinese far-seas naval operations and apply informational pressure on Beijing’s maritime energy supply routes, Zhao wrote in the paper.
But she said India’s heavy reliance on foreign data was a “structural weakness” that meant its assessments of China were vulnerable to third-party strategic agendas.
Zhao noted that bilateral ties between Beijing and New Delhi began to improve in late 2024, but India’s enhanced intelligence operations targeting China had continued.
After agreeing to resume border patrols in 2024, the two countries have worked to mend ties. Direct flights resumed after a five-year halt, Beijing allowed Indian pilgrims to return to the Tibet autonomous region, and India restarted issuing visas for Chinese tourists.
Last year, in another sign of thawing ties, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited China for the first time in seven years. During talks with Modi in Tianjin, Chinese President Xi Jinping said border issues should not define the two countries’ relationship.
Following the June reopening of the Lipulekh Pass – a move widely viewed as a goodwill gesture by Beijing – the two countries resumed trade through two additional Himalayan passes, Nathu La and Shipki La, in August.
In the paper, Zhao said India was expected to increase technical surveillance of the border, which would force China to strengthen its information security.
She also warned that Beijing’s diplomatic activities with its South Asian neighbours – particularly efforts to build trust in the region and push forward projects under the Belt and Road Initiative – would face “systemic disruption” from New Delhi.
According to Zhao, with more Indian intelligence activities directed at China there was a heightened risk of miscalculation, with routine Chinese activities increasingly framed as threats.
“Consequently, the likelihood of triggering unilateral countermeasures rises,” she concluded.
Zhao said China should try to counter this pressure by improving its strategic messaging and its communication with South Asian and Indian Ocean littoral countries.


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New Delhi is more likely to take ‘unilateral countermeasures’ as routine activities are increasingly framed as threats, researcher says


New Delhi is more likely to take ‘unilateral countermeasures’ as routine activities are increasingly framed as threats, researcher says.


India

Macau

Why Indian intelligence-gathering against China could lead to miscalculation

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}New Delhi is more likely to take ‘unilateral countermeasures’ as routine activities are increasingly framed as threats, researcher says

New Delhi is more likely to take ‘unilateral countermeasures’ as routine activities are increasingly framed as threats, researcher says