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Teresa Elena Frontado

Venezuelan interim President Delcy Rodriguez’s tribute to Fidel Castro has drawn a blistering rebuke from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, highlighting the political tensions surrounding Caracas’ rapprochement with Washington even as China seeks to preserve its economic interests in the South American country.
Rodriguez marked the centenary of the late Cuban leader’s birth this week by praising Castro as a figure who “transcends time” and invoking his commitment to sovereignty, social justice and Latin American unity.
Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants and a long-time critic of the communist government in Havana, responded sharply.
“Fidel Castro was a complete failure at everything except destroying Cuba and impoverishing, jailing and murdering his own people,” Rubio wrote on social media.
The exchange came as Chinese President Xi Jinping also commemorated Castro’s centenary, praising his contribution to relations between Beijing and Havana and describing him as a founder and promoter of China-Cuba ties.


Beijing also insisted that its commitment to Venezuela would remain unchanged despite the country’s shifting political landscape.
“No matter how the political situation in Venezuela evolves, China’s willingness to deepen practical cooperation with Venezuela in various fields will not change,” a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington told the South China Morning Post.
The spokesperson said cooperation between China and Venezuela was between “two sovereign states” and protected by international and domestic law, adding that China’s “lawful interests” in Venezuela would also be protected.
“China will continue to support Venezuela in safeguarding its sovereignty, dignity and legitimate rights,” the spokesperson said.
But analysts said Rodriguez’s embrace of Castro should not necessarily be read as evidence that Venezuela is returning to the geopolitical alignment that characterised the Nicolas Maduro era.
Instead, it may underscore the delicate balancing act facing Rodriguez as she accommodates an increasingly influential Washington while attempting to reassure elements of the Chavista movement at home.
US substantially reduces Beijing’s strategic influence in Venezuela
Parsifal D’Sola, founder and executive director of the Andres Bello Foundation-China Latin America Research Centre, said the United States had “without a doubt” substantially reduced China’s strategic influence in Venezuela since Maduro’s removal in January.
The direct channel that once existed between Chinese decision-makers and the presidential palace in Caracas had effectively disappeared, D’Sola said, pointing to the absence of even mid-level Chinese official visits to Venezuela since January 3.
That retreat, however, began well before Maduro’s removal.
Chinese lending to Venezuela stopped in 2017, D’Sola said, while major Chinese oil companies largely withdrew, Huawei Technologies reduced its operations, and the seniority of Chinese officials engaging with Caracas declined over the years.
Venezuela nevertheless remains important to Beijing because of its geography and vast natural resources, he said, describing China before January as keeping “one foot inside” Venezuela while waiting to see how events developed rather than seeking to recreate the intense relationship of the Hugo Chavez era.
R. Evan Ellis, a Latin America research professor at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, offered a different assessment of how much China had lost.
“China’s economic and strategic position in Venezuela has actually changed very little since January 3,” Ellis said.
China continues to buy significant quantities of Venezuelan oil, although it must now pay market prices, while its positions in oil joint ventures have not been substantially affected, he said.




Ellis estimated that of roughly US$104 billion China had lent Venezuela over the years, all but about US$10 billion had been repaid, with no indication that the remainder would not be recovered.
“What China appears to have lost is face and certain prospects for non-economic relationships in the future,” he said, arguing that concerns about the damage to Beijing’s economic interests had been overstated.
The distinction points to a potentially significant shift in the China-Venezuela relationship: Beijing may retain substantial commercial interests while losing some of the political access and strategic importance it enjoyed when Caracas was more isolated from Washington.
Before Maduro’s removal, Ellis said, the relationship was not simply one of Chinese influence but of Venezuelan “dependency”, with most Venezuelan oil ultimately flowing to China and Beijing and Moscow playing important roles in the country’s energy sector.
That dependency has diminished as Rodriguez’s accommodation with the Trump administration has reopened other options for Caracas, including access to Western oil companies and markets.
The share of Venezuelan oil going to China has consequently fallen significantly, Ellis said.
Rodriguez defends Venezuela’s right to maintain relations with China, Russia
Rodriguez has nevertheless publicly defended Venezuela’s right to maintain relations with China, Russia, Iran and Cuba while simultaneously rebuilding ties with the United States.
Beijing, for its part, has continued to describe Venezuela as an “all-weather” strategic partner and has signalled its intention to maintain economic cooperation with Caracas.
But analysts questioned how much latitude Rodriguez now has to restore the broader strategic relationship with China.
D’Sola said he saw little possibility of Caracas substantially expanding relations with Beijing given what he described as Washington’s “marked tutelage” over the Rodriguez government, particularly because China’s principal interests in Venezuela – oil and mining – are also critical priorities for the United States.
Chinese investment and participation in Venezuela were already at “historic lows”, he said, giving Beijing little incentive to risk creating another point of friction with Washington.
Ellis saw somewhat greater room for continued commercial engagement.
Rodriguez probably has latitude to continue selling oil to China and doing business with Chinese companies, he said, provided Venezuela remains open to US companies and avoids activities that Washington would view as threatening its strategic interests.
A renewed Chinese military or security presence, for example, would likely cross a very different line, he said.
Both analysts were sceptical that Rodriguez’s praise for Castro indicated a renewed foreign policy turn towards China or Cuba.


D’Sola said he viewed the rhetoric primarily through the lens of Venezuela’s domestic politics, noting dissatisfaction among ideological Chavista hardliners with Rodriguez’s accommodation with Washington, the restoration of relations with Israel, and softer rhetoric towards the West.
Ellis similarly described the Castro tribute as an attempt to signal Rodriguez’s continued fidelity to the Chavista movement while her government pursued markedly different policies.
He suggested Washington was ultimately likely to place more weight on Rodriguez’s actions than her rhetoric.
The episode nevertheless illustrates the competing pressures confronting the Venezuelan leader seven months after Maduro’s removal: maintaining the support of a movement built partly around resistance to US influence while governing under dramatically altered relations with Washington.
For China, meanwhile, the emerging arrangement could prove more complicated than a straightforward loss of Venezuela to the United States.
Beijing may retain access to Venezuelan oil, investments and commercial opportunities even as Washington constrains the political and security dimensions of a relationship that was once among China’s closest in Latin America.
The US State Department and the Chinese embassy in Caracas were contacted for comment.


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Beijing retains commercial interests in Venezuela even as analysts see Washington curbing its political and strategic influence


Beijing retains commercial interests in Venezuela even as analysts see Washington curbing its political and strategic influence.


Delcy Rodriguez’s Castro tribute tests Venezuela’s balancing act between US and China

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Beijing retains commercial interests in Venezuela even as analysts see Washington curbing its political and strategic influence

Beijing retains commercial interests in Venezuela even as analysts see Washington curbing its political and strategic influence