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Fan Chen

Khushboo Razdan

Alyssa Chen

China and the United States’ agreement to pursue stability appeared to be holding, analysts said, even as President Donald Trump seemed determined to rock the boat ahead of the leaders’ second summit of the year in September.
The assessment came as Beijing issued a measured response to his allegations of Chinese interference in the 2020 US elections.
That restraint and recent tangible gestures – including Washington lifting sanctions on Hong Kong and the expected trip to the US this week by a senior Chinese official – signalled a shared appetite for stability, experts said.
That was in sharp contrast with the Joe Biden era, when the downing of a high-altitude balloon originating from China in early 2023 undermined efforts to mend strained relations.
In a prime-time televised address last week, Trump accused Beijing of orchestrating the “largest compromise of election data in history”, a claim that contradicts assessments made by US intelligence agencies in 2021.


Beijing opted for a controlled response. Concerns that the controversy would derail Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to the US did not last long, as both sides confirmed that preparations were still under way.
While branding the claims “entirely fabricated” and “maliciously slanderous”, Beijing’s response stopped at rhetoric.
Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, argued such restraint stems from Beijing’s view that Trump’s latest accusation was aimed primarily at the domestic audience.
“Trump hopes that by blaming China, he can set up excuses for a potential defeat for the coming midterm election,” he said, adding that another factor was the domestic backlash Trump faced after his May visit to Beijing, when hawkish critics accused him of being too soft on China.
Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based think tank Stimson Centre, agreed that the purpose of Trump’s allegations was largely domestic.
She pointed out that these claims were not backed by any punitive measures and the Chinese reaction was “more than moderate”.


“This is the manifestation of the resilience of the understanding that Trump and Xi have been able to build. There are factors beyond the bilateral relations that influence them, mostly domestic. The key is to protect the agenda from those factors,” she said.
Following their meeting in South Korea last October, the US and Chinese leaders gradually stepped up bilateral engagement, holding multiple phone calls and a high-stakes summit in Beijing in May.
At that meeting, the two sides agreed to establish a new framework of “constructive strategic stability”.
Sun Chenghao, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Beijing’s Tsinghua University, pointed out that the current situation was largely due to the leaders’ endorsement of that framework, which “allows both sides to tolerate occasional friction and distractions”.
“Beijing clearly wishes to preserve the positive momentum, including the hard-won stability in great power relations,” Sun said.
Escalating every unfriendly remark into a diplomatic confrontation would be “inappropriate and unnecessary”, he added, especially considering how frequently Trump makes such statements.
When the US has previously accused foreign nations of interfering in its elections, Washington has hit them with tough measures.
In 2016, for instance, the Obama administration expelled 35 Russian diplomats as punishment for alleged interference in the presidential election that year. It also shut down two state-owned Russian compounds in New York and Maryland.
Yet, the current fallout is far less intense than in previous crises in Sino-US relations.
Just three years ago, in the wake of the balloon incident, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken abruptly postponed his planned visit to Beijing, sending relations into a deep freeze.
With this year’s planned visits and Trump’s desired ‘grand deal’ at stake, losing momentum would benefit neither side
Zhang Chi, researcher
Sun of the Stimson Centre added that Blinken’s 2023 visit to Beijing was meant to reboot relations, but the two countries currently have “stronger relationships to begin with”.
Senior American officials have previously suggested that Trump and Xi might meet as many as four times this year, including at November’s Apec summit in Shenzhen, the Miami G20 summit, in addition to the reciprocal state visits.
This week, Chinese vice-minister for foreign affairs Ma Zhaoxu is expected to meet senior US State Department officials to lay the groundwork for Xi’s planned visit to Washington, according to sources.
Analysts observed that Trump was similarly keen to keep the September summit on track.
The US president had maintained tighter discipline within his team to prevent setbacks to the current phase of constructive strategic stability, according to Zhang Chi, a senior researcher at the Centre on Contemporary China and the World at the University of Hong Kong.
“With this year’s planned visits and Trump’s desired ‘grand deal’ at stake, losing momentum would benefit neither side,” he added. “Any consensus on the American side stems largely from Trump’s determination and his capacity to translate that vision into action through his team.”
Last weekend, Washington allowed a national emergency declaration on Hong Kong to expire, lifting sanctions on nine officials from the city and the Chinese mainland.
Although the US noted the executive order revoking Hong Kong’s special trading status remains in effect, China welcomed the decision as a positive step.
Zhao of Fudan University noted that the move fostered a favourable environment for future summits, as both sides are working to establish a stable foundation despite low mutual trust.
“At present, Beijing is increasingly worried about potential negative actions from the US State Department and its frontline diplomats, including the US Consul General in Hong Kong [Julie Eadeh] and Raymond Greene, the director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Therefore, China continues to keep a close eye on the situation.”


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Leaders’ commitment to stability holds as China likely views his remarks as domestic political theatre, analysts say


Leaders’ commitment to stability holds as China likely views his remarks as domestic political theatre, analysts say.


Why Trump’s claim that Beijing meddled in US election hasn’t put ties on ice

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Leaders’ commitment to stability holds as China likely views his remarks as domestic political theatre, analysts say

Leaders’ commitment to stability holds as China likely views his remarks as domestic political theatre, analysts say