Orban on the brink: could Hungary’s election dent China’s influence in Europe?

Major powers are closely watching Hungary’s election next week – a vote seen as a referendum on Europe’s right and crucial for Chinese interests in the EU. Recent polls show self-styled “illiberal democrat” Viktor Orban’s Fidesz trailing challenger Peter Magyar’s Tisza Party by between 19 and 23 points among likely voters ahead of an election on Sunday that has been described as “Europe’s most consequential”. For China, Russia and the United States under President Donald Trump, an Orban defeat would remove a partner that has repeatedly blocked EU efforts to act against them and opposed parts of the bloc’s social and green agenda. For Brussels, meanwhile, a Magyar victory would raise hopes that Budapest may move closer to the EU centre, ousting a member state that has repeatedly blocked efforts to sanction Russia and China over political and human rights disputes. In a show of solidarity with Orban, US Vice-President J.D. Vance is expected to visit Hungary this week – a demonstration of the ideological alliance Orban has struck up with the Maga movement, for which the five-term prime minister has become a poster boy. “Hungary is a small but proud country – people say our elections are the most consequential in Europe and I agree,” said Tamas Matura, an associate professor specialising in China at Corvinus University of Budapest. Beyond the immediate contest, the election could reshape China’s position in Europe. Orban has long served as Beijing’s closest ally inside the EU, shielding it from criticism and attracting billions in investment. His removal would strip China of that political foothold, even if its economic footprint in Hungary likely proves more durable. “The Russians could be about to lose their closest friends in Europe. For the Chinese, a change in government means it may lose some kind of political support even if its economic positions would probably be ensured,” Matura said. China has not, however, featured prominently in the campaign. Instead, as polling day nears, close links between Orban’s circle and the Kremlin have made international headlines. Leaked phone calls between Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto and Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov showed the Hungarian official agreeing to work to remove a sanctioned oligarch’s wife from EU listings. VSquare, an investigative news portal now subject to espionage charges from Orban’s government, reported that a three-person team had been dispatched to Budapest with the aim of securing a Fidesz victory. The election, then, is being pitched as a referendum on whether Hungary should lean East or West. “Among Tisza voters, 71 per cent support a pro-Western orientation, whereas among Fidesz voters the figure stands at only 44 per cent,” read a report from the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). “This difference indicates that the dispute over the strategic direction of foreign policy has become one of the principal axes of division within the political landscape.” Orban’s friendly ties with Beijing have seen Hungary become the biggest destination for Chinese capital in Europe. In his running battles with Brussels, these Chinese investments have been pitched as an alternative to EU funds, which have been frozen in disputes over Hungary’s adherence to the rule of law. As well as voting against high-profile EU tariffs on electric vehicles, Orban’s government has blocked foreign ministers’ efforts to sharpen the bloc’s sanctions against Beijing. In 2021, Hungary repeatedly blocked EU efforts to take punitive measures related to Beijing’s sweeping national security legislation and electoral reforms in Hong Kong. The bloc had proposed a “full review” of relations with Hong Kong and discussions over member states’ extradition treaties with mainland China. However, Budapest used its veto to prevent the measures from being adopted, drawing a furious response from other EU members. It has also stymied EU efforts to condemn Beijing on human rights, including the detention of rights lawyers in 2017, while Budapest raised eyebrows when it hosted a US-sanctioned Chinese official – Erkin Tuniyaz, chairman of the Xinjiang region – in 2021. As ties blossomed, Hungary has attracted investment including an electric vehicle factory by BYD and a CATL battery plant, while a railway linking Budapest with Belgrade was billed as Europe’s first belt and road project when signed in 2020. It is the only EU member to enjoy an “all-weather strategic partnership” with Beijing. On the campaign trail, Magyar has said little about China, although allies have hinted at a sterner policy to come. Tisza’s foreign minister designate Anita Orban, in a social media post in February, questioned the merits of her namesake’s pro-China approach, saying her government would pursue a “more pragmatic” policy. “Chinese companies investing in our country bring the production lines and often even building materials from China, which contribute to the growing lack of foreign trade in Hungary,” she wrote. “The end result is that a significant part of the investments worth billions is flowing immediately back to China, instead of enriching our country,” Anita Orban continued, pointing to the fact that 1.6 per cent of Hungary’s exports went to China in 2010, compared to 1.1 per cent in 2025. “Hungary also needs a close economic relationship with China, but we cannot become vulnerable.” The party’s manifesto pledges to prohibit “mass employment of guest workers from June 1, 2026” and to investigate heavy polluting in the battery industry following a scandal involving Korean manufacturer Samsung’s Hungarian site. It is thought that some of the major infrastructure projects agreed with Beijing will be scrutinised if Orban loses office, amid allegations that they were agreed opaquely and involved corruption. “Magyar is indicating that the way Fidesz is approaching Beijing is not really favourable for Hungary. The environment is polluted, working conditions in the factories are not fulfilling EU requirements,” said Ilona Gizinska, a research fellow specialising in Hungary at OSW, the Polish think tank. Matura, the China specialist in Budapest, said that the Tisza campaign had taken a “very sober, objective” position towards Beijing. “People in inner circles have one key word – pragmatic … those very politicised gestures towards Beijing will disappear, vetoing this and blocking that probably won’t happen in the future, but the Chinese investment would probably be fine,” he said. For China, Hungary’s friendship has taken on outsize importance in Europe as its relations with other EU members frayed. For many other countries in the east of the bloc, Beijing’s close ties with Moscow have been a red flag, while its state-led economy has upset potential partners in its east. “Orban is extremely important to China these days – most EU countries have become more sceptical towards collaboration with China. Hungary under Orban has been the one country where they could really make progress,” said Eva Seiwert, an expert in China’s foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin. Orban’s longevity, Seiwert said, dovetailed with that of Chinese President Xi Jinping, allowing them to develop “close personal relations” and for Beijing to present “Orban as a great friend of China”. It also prevented, at times, the EU from “speaking with one voice on China – this made Orban even more important”, Seiwert said. “If Europe speaks with one voice it makes it harder to dismiss for China. Hungary’s stance was very different to many other European countries in this regard – it makes me wonder to whom will they turn to next?”

Orban on the brink: could Hungary’s election dent China’s influence in Europe?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}‘Most consequential’ vote is being pitched as a referendum on whether the country should move towards the East or West

‘Most consequential’ vote is being pitched as a referendum on whether the country should move towards the East or West