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Vanessa Cai

William Zheng

Donald Trump’s threat to seize Kharg Island – a key Iranian oil hub – could be a risky proposition, analysts say, given its strategic location in the Persian Gulf.
The small coral island lying about 33km (21 miles) offshore handles around 90 per cent of Iran’s crude shipments. It also sits close to missile and drone ranges stationed on the Iranian mainland and about 660km (410 miles) from the now heavily fortified Strait of Hormuz.
The Trump administration has been considering deploying troops to seize the small island as a way to pressure Iran into reopening the strait, a critical energy conduit that has been effectively shut in retaliation for the US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28.
In a highly anticipated speech late on Wednesday (US time), President Trump said that the “core strategic objectives” of Operation Epic Fury were “nearing completion”.
But he also warned about further strikes that could inflict heavy damage, heightening fears of a US seizure of Kharg Island amid mounting American troop build-up in the region.


Trump has made several pointed threats about seizing the island since start of the US-Israeli military campaign.
In an interview with the Financial Times published on Sunday, where Trump said that he wanted to “take the oil in Iran” by seizing Kharg.
“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” he said. “It would also mean we had to be there [on Kharg Island] for a while.”
The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli arrived in the Middle East last week, signalling heightened US readiness for potential ship-to-shore operations.
As a “lightning carrier”, essentially a light aircraft carrier, the Tripoli is a compact platform for F-35B stealth fighters, MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotors, and landing craft to deploy troops ashore.
But analysts cautioned that a ground invasion of Kharg Island carried high risks, due to its strategic position near the Iranian mainland, enabling rapid missile and drone responses.
A Beijing-based Chinese military analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to media, said occupying Kharg Island directly would prove difficult.
This was because the entire amphibious assault fleet would need to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, making it vulnerable to ambushes from mountain bunkers on either side of the narrow chokepoint.


Direct assault with MV-22 Ospreys carrying Marines would be equally risky, given the long flight distance from amphibious assault ships positioned in the Arabian Sea, the analyst noted.
A better strategy would be for the US Marine Expeditionary Brigade to use MV-22 Ospreys to land on strategic locations in the mountains along the strait to establish outposts, conduct reconnaissance and guide air strikes, according to the analyst.
“Then the CH-53E heavy helicopters can sling-load heavy artillery and field anti-drone air defence systems from the amphibious assault ships, this would be much safer.
“Occupying only Kharg Island without taking over the key outposts along the Hormuz Strait coast could lead to Iran intensifying its offensive and hitting US landing troops. So there’s got to be a sweeping operation first, before taking the island.”
Not only does Kharg Island lie deep within the Persian Gulf, Tehran has reportedly bolstered its defences there in preparation for assault.
Its location means any US force would take at least a day to reach Kharg, “providing time for Iran to mine surrounding waters and prepare defences”, Christian Emery, an associate professor specialising in US-Iran relations at University College London, told NBC News last week.
According to CNN, Iran has been laying traps and moving additional military personnel and air defences to Kharg Island in preparation for a possible US operation to take control of the island.
In a March 25 report citing sources, CNN said Iran had moved additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile systems to the island in recent weeks, and had also been laying traps including anti-personnel and anti-armour mines around the island.
Last month, JPMorgan’s global commodity research team warned in an investment note that striking Kharg Island would trigger major economic fallout, worsening the oil shock.
Nearly a fifth of the world’s crude once flowed through the Strait of Hormuz, now partially blockaded and reportedly mined by Iran since the US-Israeli strikes, driving oil prices well over US$100 a barrel.
“A direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure,” the JPMorgan note said.


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US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the key Iranian oil hub, with latest speech heightening fears


US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the key Iranian oil hub, with latest speech heightening fears.


How Trump’s plan to take Iran’s Kharg Island could come unhinged

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the key Iranian oil hub, with latest speech heightening fears

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to seize the key Iranian oil hub, with latest speech heightening fears