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Orange Wang

Iran’s air strikes on the Gulf states have turned the spotlight onto China’s dilemma in trying to develop long-term relations with those nations but also with their arch-rival Iran.
Strikes on all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members in retaliation for US and Israeli attacks on Iran have hit both American military assets stationed in those countries and civilian infrastructure, including oil refineries.
As oil and gas producers, they are also bearing the brunt of the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
All six have stated their neutrality, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told US broadcaster MS Now, formerly MSNBC, on Saturday it was “crystal clear” his country was being attacked from US bases and military installations located in its Gulf neighbours.
Meanwhile, China has been stepping up its mediation efforts. Analysts have said China’s long-standing relationship with Iran could allow it to play a “unique” role in cooling tensions – but warned that its influence was not strong enough to stop Tehran targeting Beijing’s partners in the Gulf.
However, some observers have argued that Beijing could offer the GCC additional “pragmatic” support to help stabilise the situation, and said the conflict could pave the way for the relationship to “deepen further” in the long run.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held separate calls over the last two weeks with his counterparts from all six GCC states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – as well as Iran.
Beijing has also sent its special envoy for Middle East affairs, Zhai Jun, on a tour of the Gulf. On Sunday, he met Kuwait’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Jarrah Jaber Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah and spoke by phone with Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh Al-Khulaifi, Qatar’s minister of state for foreign affairs.
Meanwhile, Chinese foreign vice-minister Miao Deyu had a group meeting with envoys from all the GCC members in Beijing last week in what was seen as an effort to offer reassurance to its partners.
China’s “recent diplomatic mediation efforts are a continuation of [its long-standing] policy approach”, according to Chen Jiahui, a research assistant at South China University of Technology’s Institute of Public Policy in Guangzhou.
She said the basic principles underpinning its strategy included non-interference in other countries’ affairs, respect for national sovereignty and settling disputes through dialogue.


Chen added that better communication with the Gulf states could help Beijing understand their concerns and push for de-escalation.
“With the situation not yet fundamentally eased, China can provide support for regional stability in certain pragmatic areas, in addition to diplomatic communication and mediation,” she said.
Chen suggested that China could consider ways of helping shipping pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely, such as coordinating “the orderly passage of vessels under specific conditions”.
She also said that if tensions eased in the future, China could actively work with Gulf states on restoring civilian infrastructure and economic reconstruction.
Zhou Chao, a research fellow for the geopolitical strategy programme at Beijing-based think tank Anbound, said China could provide Gulf states with “non-military” support in areas such as security technology, stabilising energy markets and sustaining investor confidence.
“China can help Gulf states enhance their defensive capacities, rather than take over their security responsibilities,” Zhou said, pointing to its ability to produce defensive technology.
Zhou added that Beijing could help anchor energy market expectations by expanding long-term procurement, coordinating releases from strategic petroleum reserves, shoring up the shipping insurance market and strengthening investment in energy infrastructure.
“This stabilising role is of great significance for Gulf states, since in a wartime environment, [damage to] economic confidence is often more likely to result in systemic shocks than military conflict itself,” he said.
“China’s continued presence in investment and development can also serve as an important psychological and economic stabiliser for Gulf states.”
However, Zhou warned that cooperation in areas such as drones was likely to draw close scrutiny from the US and pro-Washington factions in the Middle East.
He also said that even after the current war, the risk of further regional instability might remain a concern for Chinese companies and capital.
China is the GCC’s largest trading partner and the top buyer of its petrochemical exports.
Shipments from the bloc accounted for almost a third of China’s total crude oil imports last year, while another 11 per cent came from Iraq, according to Chinese customs data.
Later this year, China will host the second China–Arab States Summit, one of the most important events on Beijing’s 2026 diplomatic calendar and a key element of its efforts to strengthen relations with the Gulf states.
But Beijing has also been cultivating strong ties with Iran. It declared the Islamic Republic a “comprehensive strategic partner” a decade ago and has been its largest trading partner and export market for more than a decade, according to China’s ambassador to Tehran – Cong Peiwu.
Given these strong ties and Iran’s alleged heavy dependence on China for energy export revenues and diplomatic support, some analysts say it could exert considerable influence when trying to mediate an end to the war.
But both Chen and Zhou warned against overestimating the extent of this influence.
“China does not have the kind of control over Iran seen in alliance relationships, nor does it have the capacity to compel Iran to alter its military actions,” Zhou said.


Chen said: “China’s unique advantage lies in its ability to maintain good diplomatic relations simultaneously with Iran, the Gulf Arab states and other major actors in the region, which is relatively rare in the current Middle Eastern landscape.”
She added that the war could test China’s ties with Gulf Arab states in the short term and undermine its achievement in helping to broker the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.
But she said the foundations of their relationship remained “unshaken” and “may even be further consolidated as [the two sides] work together to address regional risks”.
Chen said the current conflict might deepen Gulf states’ concerns about the United States and Israel’s agenda, adding: “China’s strategic significance as a major partner and a force of stability is likely to become even more pronounced” as those countries “pursue more diversified economic, diplomatic and security portfolios”.
Zhou said China’s appeal in the Gulf was “gradually increasing” but this did not mean “China will replace the US as the dominant security power in the region”.


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Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become


Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become.


Can China still maintain good relations with Gulf states and Iran as fighting escalates?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become

Iranian strikes on neighbouring states in response to US and Israeli attacks highlight how difficult Beijing’s balancing act has become