Will Iran attack derail Trump’s high-stakes China visit to meet Xi Jinping?

The massive American military strikes on Iran could add a new layer of uncertainty to US President Donald Trump’s high-stakes trip to China at the end of the month, observers warn. They said that while the visit was expected to go ahead as planned, the escalating conflict in the Middle East could fuel fresh concerns in Beijing over Washington’s global assertiveness and ambitions. Large-scale US and Israeli strikes on Iran since Saturday have killed senior Iranian figures including the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a dramatic escalation of the Middle East crisis after US-Iran nuclear talks ended without a deal. Tehran has responded by launching attacks on US military bases in the region while vowing “ferocious” retaliation. China has strongly condemned the killing of Khamenei – the top cleric who had ruled for nearly four decades – describing it as a “grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security”. “It tramples on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and basic norms in international relations,” Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Monday. One Chinese national was killed during the US-Israeli joint attack, according to Mao. China was not notified in advance regarding the US military action, she added. On Sunday, in a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the “blatant killing of a sovereign leader” and the incitement of regime change were “unacceptable”. The US attacks on Iran come just weeks before Trump’s highly anticipated trip to China – scheduled for March 31 to April 2, according to the White House. It will be the first such visit by an American leader in nine years, after Trump’s trip in 2017 during his first term in office. The visit is expected to include a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and analysts expect the Middle East crisis to have a bearing on the discussions. David Arase, resident professor of international politics at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre, said it might be “awkward” for Xi to host Trump so soon after the US attack on Iran and the strikes on Venezuela in January, as both were key Chinese strategic partners and oil suppliers. “Still, China needs above all to limit the many downside risks in relations with the US,” Arase said. “A Trump visit with good optics even if no new ground is broken will help Xi to maintain stable, predictable relations with this mercurial US President.” Zhao Minghao, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said the impact of the Iranian conflict on talks between Trump and Xi “may be very obvious”, while similarly citing Iran and Venezuela as “important” countries to China. “The Trump administration has in fact already carried out regime change in these countries. Now, in China, there are many discussions about the deep intentions of the US,” Zhao said. “Although the Trump administration says … that it does not pursue regime change, in reality it is actually promoting regime change. This may cause very prominent and very significant concerns on China’s part.” In Venezuela, Washington’s long-standing campaign of diplomatic pressure and sanctions culminated in the January military strikes and the capture of then-leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The US has applied similar regime-change tactics against Iran, long viewed as an adversary. China has consistently opposed US foreign interventions and its push for regime change in other countries, framing such actions as a violation of sovereignty that destabilises the international order. Zhao said the deepening Iranian crisis would also shape Xi-Trump talks in Beijing, with China worried about potential regime change there and US control over its oil and gas resources. “I think Trump will turn these actions towards Venezuela and Iran into a card [that he will play to] pressure China … It may be something tacit but he will certainly use these matters to exert pressure on China, especially the energy issue,” Zhao said. There have been discussions in some quarters that the US attack on Iran may prompt China to call off Trump’s visit. Diao Daming, an international relations professor at Renmin University, countered that head-of-state diplomacy was vitally important for Beijing. “Close communication between the two major powers … is conducive to stabilising bilateral relations and the world order,” Diao said. “In the face of a continuously turbulent world, communication and coordination between major powers are even more crucial.” Diao said China was also likely to use Trump’s visit to signal its intent to defend the global order and safeguard international security and stability. Arase suggested that both China and the US had reasons to proceed with Trump’s visit as planned. He said Beijing would hope to limit Trump’s support for Taiwan, and that images of the American president “paying tribute” to Xi in Beijing could help boost the Chinese leader’s status at home. In a phone call with Trump last month, Xi told Trump that the Taiwan question was the “most important” issue in bilateral relations. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons for its defence. Arase said Trump would be mindful that the US needed to avoid another round of Chinese rare earth embargoes, as well as “stabilise the high wire balancing act that preserves stability in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea”. Trump would also want to convey to China that last month’s Supreme Court ruling striking down his executive tariff powers changed nothing about his ability to control Chinese access to the US economy. Beyond economic leverage, Arase said the events in Venezuela and Iran had sent a stark message on US intelligence and military capabilities. “The other [message] is that his moves in Venezuela and Iran show that US intelligence capabilities and the vast power and reach of the US military are not to be underestimated.”

Will Iran attack derail Trump’s high-stakes China visit to meet Xi Jinping?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}China has condemned killing of Iranian leader as a grave violation of sovereignty and called US incitement of regime change ‘unacceptable’

China has condemned killing of Iranian leader as a grave violation of sovereignty and called US incitement of regime change ‘unacceptable’