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Zhao Ziwen

China has strongly condemned the killing of the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which has left Tehran in turmoil and the Middle East facing a major regional escalation.
However, analysts believe that China’s position as Iran’s top oil buyer and trade partner will endure through any political upheaval.
They also expect Beijing to adopt a pragmatic approach towards Iran’s next leadership, despite the potential threat to Chinese diplomatic and defence ambitions in the Middle East should Tehran now pivot to the West.
The death of Khamenei, 86, in a joint US-Israeli air strike was confirmed by Iran’s state media on Sunday. It ends nearly four decades of his singular dominance and casts uncertainty over the Islamic Republic’s political future.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for regime change in Iran. “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take,” he urged the Iranian public on social media on Saturday.




Alireza Arafi, a hardline figure within Iran’s clerical establishment, has been appointed to a three-member temporary leadership council, alongside reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei. The body is tasked with fulfilling the supreme leader’s role until the Assembly of Experts – Iran’s 88-member panel of Islamic jurists – elects a new leader.
Meanwhile, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s dominant military and security apparatus and guardian of its Islamic system, has launched retaliatory strikes on Israeli military sites and US bases across the Middle East.
China has denounced the killing of Khamenei, calling it a “grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security”.
“China firmly opposes and strongly condemns it,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Sunday.
“We urge an immediate stop to the military operations, no further escalation of the tense situation and a joint effort to maintain peace and stability in the Middle East and the world at large.”
In a phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov on Sunday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the air strikes in the midst of US-Iran negotiations were unacceptable.
“It is unacceptable to blatantly kill the leader of a sovereign state and instigate regime change,” Wang said, according to the Chinese foreign ministry.
“The conflict has now spread to the entire Persian Gulf,” Wang noted, adding that China was “highly concerned”.




Wen Shaobiao at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University said the United States and Israel were likely to push aggressively for a “new” Iran. Even then, China’s economic leverage guaranteed the continuation of their economic partnership, ensuring that bilateral relations were “not disturbed” by external factors, Wen added.
“If Iran transitions to an open economy, it will not reject trade with China,” he said. “Moreover, if a new government is established and the US sanctions [on Iran] are subsequently lifted, it would actually stabilise Chinese investment in the country.”
But, Wen added, it would be hard for Washington to overthrow the existing system, given Tehran’s “strong ideological and social foundations” and “extensive experience in confronting powerful forces”.
China’s multifaceted ties with Iran – forged under shared US pressure and Beijing’s drive to extend its influence in the Middle East and across the Global South – have steadily deepened.
But despite close ties under Khamenei, China has hesitated to make major investments in Iran over sanctions fears – a persistent point of friction with Tehran.
Still, Beijing’s sizeable imports of Iranian oil have highlighted a strategic partnership driven by energy security, offering Tehran crucial economic relief.
While the West criticises these imports for evading sanctions, China insists they reflect legitimate sovereign trade and rejects what it calls unilateral US pressure.


A former Chinese diplomat in the Middle East, speaking on condition of anonymity, told the South China Morning Post that Beijing’s economic leverage would keep Tehran engaged regardless of political shifts.
This stems from China’s massive oil demand, robust trade, investment and manufacturing capacity, and its willingness to develop “unconditional” economic partnerships, according to the former diplomat, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Iran had shown significant resilience in the wake of Khamenei’s death, he noted, citing its swift transition to an interim leadership and the rapid initiation of the succession process, as well as the IRGC’s ability to maintain organised strikes.
In addition to its economic pull, analysts highlighted China’s deeply rooted diplomatic pragmatism, saying that Beijing was likely to maintain engagement with Tehran regardless of any internal ideological shifts.
Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter and head of research at the ChinaMed Project supported by Rome, does not expect leadership changes to be a “major obstacle for Sino-Iranian ties”.
“China is very pragmatic on such kind of issues. It would not be surprising if the new leadership will be someone who has already worked with Beijing,” Ghiselli said.
China might even “welcome a less radical and ideological Iranian leadership”, he added.
Jesse Marks, founder of Rihla Research and Advisory, a Washington-based consultancy focused on the Middle East, echoed the assessment.
“China has shown a persistent ability to restore productive ties with successive regimes in countries that faced unprecedented political change – including in Egypt during the Arab spring and with the new Syrian authorities after Assad’s fall,” he said, referring to Bashar al-Assad, the former president of Syria.


Marks, however, argued that talk of a pro-Western regime change remained far-fetched, given that the IRGC, the Islamic Republic’s crucial power pillar, was still largely organised.
“Any talk of regime change is far from reality until the IRGC’s control is diminished or replaced,” he said.
But while observers agree that bilateral ties will not collapse outright, China’s long-cultivated strategic influence in Iran across diplomacy and defence looks set to suffer a setback.
In his phone call with Lavrov, Wang warned that the situation in the Middle East risked “being pushed into a dangerous abyss”, as he urged Gulf countries to exercise restraint and return to dialogue and negotiation as soon as possible.
“All parties should make strong efforts to promote peace and stop the war,” Wang said.


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US-Israel war on Iran

Khamenei is dead. But China’s ties with Iran will endure. Here’s why

Mourners hold pictures of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader  killed in US-Israeli air strikes, in Tehran on Sunday. Photo: EPA 

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: defiant Iranian leader’s rule ended by his enemies

People gather at Tehran’s Enghelab Square after Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed. Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

A satellite image shows black smoke rising and heavy damage at Iranian Supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s compound, following strikes. Photo: Pleiades Neo (c) Airbus DS 2026 via Reuters

People gather in Tehran to mourn the death of Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Photo: AFP

Iran’s supreme leader during a meeting in Tehran in 2025. Photo: West Asia News Agency via Reuters

Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei (3rd from R) attends a memorial service for the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989. Photo: Reuters

Supreme leader Ali Khamenei walks with Iranian commanders past members of the Basij militia in Tehran in 2007. Photo: ISNA via AFP

Then-president Khamenei in a military uniform in 1981. Photo: AP

Iran strikes day 2: Trump threatens more hits, Khamenei dead and Israel mounts new attacks

Government supporters gather in mourning after state TV officially announces the death of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran on Sunday. Photo: AP

A satellite image shows heavy damage to the compound of late Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following weekend strikes by the United States and Israel. Photo: Airbus DS via Reuters

Tehran was one of the Iranian cities hit by the US and Israeli missiles on Saturday. Photo: AP

Rubble and debris cover a destroyed vehicle following a missile strike on Tehran. Photo: AFP

Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance fires a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile in support of Operation Epic Fury on Saturday. Photo: Handout

With Khamenei dead, who will be Iran’s next supreme leader?

Mourners react following the death of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Sunday. Photo: EPA

A man holds a picture of Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the Iranian supreme leader, in Tehran, on February 11. Photo: EPA

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Killing of Iranian supreme leader has sparked turmoil and triggered talk about an ideological shift to the West


Killing of Iranian supreme leader has sparked turmoil and triggered talk about an ideological shift to the West.


Khamenei is dead. But China’s ties with Iran will endure. Here’s why

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Killing of Iranian supreme leader has sparked turmoil and triggered talk about an ideological shift to the West

Killing of Iranian supreme leader has sparked turmoil and triggered talk about an ideological shift to the West