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Dewey Sim

A combination of poor diplomacy and deep mistrust among South China Sea claimant states could escalate tensions into a “crisis”, an expert has warned while urging more measures to protect “aggrieved” countries.
Lucio Pitlo, a research fellow at the Manila-based Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation think tank, told a conference in China on Friday there was a consensus that the situation in the disputed waters had become “increasingly untenable”.
“The risk is increasing,” he said, describing a “disturbing” spate of sea and air incidents, particularly between China and the Philippines.
Pitlo, who was speaking at a conference on the South China Sea held on the sidelines of the Boao Forum for Asia in China’s southern Hainan province, said “poor diplomacy and a high trust deficit run the risk of mishandling accidents, which can turn them into [a] crisis”.


The conference was organised by Chinese institutions, including the National Institute for South China Sea Studies and the China Oceanic Development Foundation.
China claims most islands and reefs in the resource-rich waterway and rights over their adjacent waters, leading to tensions between nations with interests in the disputed sea.
The South China Sea is seen as a possible flashpoint in the region, with Beijing and Manila clashing over their competing claims in recent years – even after they reached an interim deal in July on resupplying Philippine soldiers stationed in the Second Thomas Shoal.
Pitlo said that even amid efforts to de-escalate the situation, the risk of miscalculation and accidents remained “very high as rivals try to push the envelope and try to test the reaction of competing claimants”.
He said that despite Beijing and Manila having dialogue mechanisms – including a bilateral consultative mechanism – “they have become busy more with firefighting, becoming more reactive than proactive”.
“I think the Philippines should not take China’s concerns for granted, but at the same time, China should not overestimate regular alliance activities that the Philippines had been undertaking for so long,” he said.
On Friday, for example, Beijing placed its troops overseeing the South China Sea on high alert and condemned joint drills conducted by the Philippines, the United States and Japan. A spokesman for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Southern Theatre Command said Manila was enlisting countries outside the region for its joint patrols and destabilising the region.
Instead, Pitlo suggested that the Philippines’ risk and threat perception was driving the country’s revitalised defence ties with the US – and that Manila was also deepening defence ties with other countries such as Japan, New Zealand, France and Canada.
“The view that the Philippines is just a mere pawn or a chess piece, I think, is overplayed and such rhetoric does not help improve ties,” he said.
Pitlo suggested that involving communities – such as fisheries experts, marine scientists and even private energy players – could help build trust and confidence between claimants. And military and coastguard hotlines could manage crises between claimant states.
Asked about the role of the US and European powers in the South China Sea dispute, he said those governments were concerned – and must keep in check – “excessive” maritime claims that were not supported by international law.
China’s rise as the world’s largest navy and coastguard has also spiked concerns among traditional naval powers, such as the US. Pitlo said he thought those powers feared that China might dominate the region and become too powerful, compelling “its neighbours to bend” if they were not more accommodating towards Beijing.
He noted that while China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) should accelerate negotiations over the long-delayed code of conduct, interim measures could address concerns “especially of aggrieved coastal states, and to show to the world that in this part of the world we can manage our own difficulties”.
“A failure to handle the South China Sea issue may invite the intervention of non-claimant maritime powers,” he said, citing the case of the Ukraine war where “the failure of the two protagonists to end the war invited the participation of an external power”.
Beijing has long stressed that territorial disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved by claimant states and not by external powers. An arbitral tribunal ruling in 2016 rejected Beijing’s claims but Beijing did not take part in the legal process, nor did it recognise the ruling or implement it.


In a separate discussion, also at the Boao Forum for Asia last week, China’s vice-minister of foreign affairs, Chen Xiaodong, doubled down on that message, saying that issues “must be resolved without external interference and should not be exploited by outside forces”.
Ruhanas Harun, professor at the National Defence University of Malaysia who was part of the South China Sea forum, said she considered that the region was “being influenced – if not pressured – by extra regional powers, such as the United States”.
Describing the situation in the South China Sea as being in a state of “stable tension”, she said the involvement of powers like the European Union were “unnecessary, irrelevant, redundant and it will only complicate the situation”.
“We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place,” she added.


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Diplomacy

Region is in ‘stable tension’, analyst tells Boao Forum. ‘We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place’


Region is in ‘stable tension’, analyst tells Boao Forum. ‘We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place’.


South China Sea: poor diplomacy and deep mistrust could escalate into crisis, expert warns

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Region is in ‘stable tension’, analyst tells Boao Forum. ‘We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place’

Region is in ‘stable tension’, analyst tells Boao Forum. ‘We already have so many actors in the region … It’s so crowded, this place’