Why Japan’s missile upgrade near China may not strain relations with Beijing

Tokyo’s reported plans to upgrade counterstrike missiles on strategic Kyushu by next year are not expected to derail improving relations, experts say

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A deployment of upgraded counterstrike missiles is slated to begin in March next year, according to Japanese reports. Photo: Handout

Published: 6:00am, 20 Mar 2025Updated: 9:25am, 20 Mar 2025

A Japanese missile deployment on Kyushu could annoy China and North Korea, but it would be unlikely to derail improvements in relations between Tokyo and Beijing, according to analysts.

Citing government sources, Japanese news agency Kyodo reported last week that Tokyo was mulling the deployment of long-range missiles – potentially an upgraded version of Japan’s Type-12 surface-to-ship guided missile – on its southwestern island of Kyushu near the East China Sea, which could target the shores of North Korea and mainland China.

The deployment, scheduled to begin next March, is designed to fortify Japan’s Nansei island chain, according to the report. The region is strategically crucial due to its proximity to Taiwan.

There are concerns that such a deployment could undermine the recent detente between Beijing and Tokyo but diplomatic observers said that was unlikely, given Japan’s missile move was to fulfil its previous defence strategy and the overarching theme of improving bilateral relations.

Wang Guangtao, an associate professor at the Centre for Japanese Studies at Fudan University, said the timing of the announcement was “a probing attempt to test China’s thresholds regarding regional security issues”.

Japan’s new moves are part of efforts outlined in Tokyo’s three strategic documents in 2022 to improve counterstrike abilities, and while the timing of the announcement was indeed “delicate”, the measures were not necessarily surprising for China, according to Wang.