Warming US-Russia ties could put China’s Arctic ambitions on ice, experts warn

Beijing has relied on Moscow for access to the far north but a geopolitical realignment is under way that could see it frozen out

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Melting ice has opened up the prospect of commercially lucrative sea routes through the North Pole. Photo: Shutterstock

Published: 10:00pm, 16 Mar 2025

China is expected to redefine its Arctic policy – including an ambition to become a great polar power by 2030 – amid growing scrutiny from far northern countries and a possible US-Russia cooperation deal for the region, according to experts and insiders.

Beijing put forward its plan for a “Polar Silk Road” – as a complement to its massive infrastructure scheme, the Belt and Road Initiative – in a 2018 white paper that envisioned greater access to the Arctic’s rich natural resources and a bigger role in its governance.

China’s description of itself in the plan as a “near-Arctic state” – despite sitting 1,400km (870 miles) south of the Arctic Circle and having no territory in the region – raised the suspicions of the US and its allies, in the midst of intensifying geopolitical rivalries.

It also provoked a backlash from the Arctic countries – including Russia, which stretches across more than half of the region’s coastline and has long prioritised maintaining its sovereignty there.

Since then, China has put more emphasis on science diplomacy – including a focus on building heavy icebreakers and carrying out polar observations – while largely toning down its other ambitions.

According to Marc Lanteigne, a professor of political science at the Arctic University of Norway, “China has been trying to rework what the Polar Silk Road is all about and it has also started to take a more practical approach to the Arctic”.

An insider with direct knowledge of the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity, noted that Beijing’s interest in continuing its Arctic push had appeared to decline in response to the geopolitical tensions.