US aid freeze presents an opportunity for China in Afghanistan. Will it take it?

US President Donald Trump’s freeze on foreign assistance programmes could leave a vacuum in Afghanistan for China to step into, but analysts say Beijing would be unwilling to do so. Trump last month announced a 90-day suspension of all foreign aid and an overhaul of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), the world’s largest single aid donor. Afghanistan is a key recipient of US assistance. Despite America’s withdrawal from the country in 2021, it still accounted for 43.9 per cent of the total aid received by Afghanistan last year, according to the United Nations. USAID has remained crucial in Afghanistan because it indirectly funds programmes in health, food security, agriculture and education in cooperation with other humanitarian agencies. Jennifer Brick Murtazashvili, founding director of the University of Pittsburgh’s Centre for Governance and Markets, said the USAID withdrawal “continues the US disengagement from Afghanistan, further weakening its influence”. “Since 2021, Washington’s role has been reactive, focusing on sanctions and counterterrorism rather than shaping events on the ground,” she said. The situation presented an opportunity for China, she said, but it was “not a major one”. “While Beijing is interested in economic and diplomatic expansion, it remains cautious about overcommitting,” she said, adding that China’s engagement with the Taliban regime was in the areas of trade, security and investment rather than development aid. Although China has not officially recognised the Taliban government, it was among the first nations to engage with Kabul – sending an ambassador to the country – following the Taliban’s return to power. Last year, China pledged to offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its construction, energy and consumer sectors. This commitment followed China’s involvement in a series of mining deals worth US$6.5 billion and the signing of a US$540 million energy agreement. In contrast, China’s development aid to Afghanistan remains understated. While the Chinese government frequently presents itself as a major donor, the specifics of its contributions remain largely undisclosed. Last year, the UN World Food Programme reported that China had contributed to the agency to provide 2,000 tonnes of food, including fortified wheat flour, fortified vegetable oil, yellow split peas and salt. That food aid – which has been distributed to more than 35,000 families or nearly 250,000 people across the country – is the latest publicly available information about China’s aid to Afghanistan. “China may expand its influence but will not fully replace USAID,” Murtazashvili said. “While China has the financial capacity, it lacks the intent to engage in large-scale development assistance.” Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at Lanzhou University’s School of Politics and International Relations, said Beijing’s security concerns were also making it less willing to provide extensive aid. “China will not significantly increase its assistance to Afghanistan if Kabul does not change its policy towards terrorist organisations – especially the East Turkestan Movement – and without a commitment to building an inclusive government,” he said. Despite the Taliban regime’s assurances of regional stability, Beijing remains wary of militant threats. In January 2023, an ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan reportedly targeted Chinese nationals in a suicide bombing outside the foreign ministry in Kabul, just a month after five Chinese nationals were injured in an attack targeting Chinese businessmen. Moreover, rising threats to Chinese investments in Pakistan, which Islamabad partly attributes to instability in Afghanistan, have strained relations between Islamabad and Kabul, a situation that also worries Beijing. Zhu also questioned whether the demise of USAID truly signified the end of US influence in Afghanistan. He said the agency’s indirect assistance accounted for only a fraction of the US support provided to the country. “In addition to aid, the combined influence of the US in Afghanistan is still large, so the nation is still the main party responsible for solving the Afghan problem, and its influence over Afghanistan will not be subverted with the reduction of aid,” he said. According to Murtazashvili, the actual humanitarian assistance from USAID could be smaller than its funding suggests, as a significant portion is often consumed by administrative and security costs. “USAID operates through UN agencies and local partners who are often very inefficient,” she said. Amid the shifting geopolitical landscape, India is also seeking to assert its influence in Afghanistan. Last month, New Delhi said it would provide additional material support to Afghanistan’s health sector and for the rehabilitation of returning Afghan refugees. The announcement followed a meeting in Dubai between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Mawlawi Amir Khan Mutaqi. Abdul Basit, a senior associate fellow of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the withdrawal of USAID had created a battleground for influence in Afghanistan between China and India. “[But] as far as this competition for relevance and influence is concerned, China is far ahead of India,” he said. “India will remain relevant. But can India catch up to China’s level? I don’t think so.” Basit said India would not engage in a reckless race to match the level of assistance being offered by China but would instead focus on its own interests in the region. “Just because there is a vacuum, it doesn’t mean regional countries will rush with their money to fill that vacuum,” he said.

US aid freeze presents an opportunity for China in Afghanistan. Will it take it?

Beijing has the financial capacity to do so but ‘lacks the intent to engage in large-scale development assistance’, analyst says