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Amber Wang

American efforts to hamstring China are likely to intensify under US President Donald Trump, with G7 countries also expecting greater risks, according to a pre-summit report released this week by organisers of the annual Munich Security Conference.
The leading international security summit begins on Friday in Germany and comes just weeks into Trump’s second term.
It will give US administration officials a stage to deliver their foreign policy outlook, which is expected to include a path towards ending the war in Ukraine.
It will also offer the chance for the first face-to-face engagement between the US officials and their counterparts from European allies and China.
According to a global risk index included in the report released on Monday, the US was seen as China’s top security concern, followed by the use of biological weapons and nuclear weapons.
Last year, the US was ranked China’s third-biggest security concern, behind cyberattacks and climate change.
However, the report added that Beijing could also benefit from Washington’s retreat from international commitments.


The US, on the other hand, viewed China as its seventh-biggest threat, the report said, with cyberattacks Washington’s biggest security concern, followed by Russia.
Following Trump’s election victory, the perceived risk posed by the US also increased sharply among the Group of Seven (G7) countries, which includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, the index showed.
However, compared to the first Munich Security Index in 2021, the risk posed by China remained relatively steady among the G7 countries, it added.
Since returning to the White House last month, Trump’s “America first” trade policy has not only caused unease in Beijing, it has also unnerved allies in Europe.
On Monday, Trump signed an order imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all foreign steel and aluminium imports into the United States, to which the European Union has vowed to retaliate. The US will also push European allies to buy arms for Ukraine, according to a report by Reuters this week.
The summit is expected to largely centre on the new administration’s vision for peace in Ukraine, where war has raged for three years.
The Munich gathering will be attended by US Vice-President J.D. Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia – all of whom could be involved in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the event.
Trump said on Monday that he would “probably” speak to Zelensky this week, adding that his officials also would use the Munich event to better gauge the support that European nations were willing to provide Kyiv as it tries to repel Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grinding invasion, according to Associated Press.
The conference will also be attended by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who in late January, advised Rubio during their first phone call to handle the Taiwan issue with extra caution.




According to the pre-summit report, Trump and many of his supporters consider the US-created international order a “bad deal”.
As a consequence, the US may be abdicating its historic role as Europe’s security guarantor – with significant consequences for Ukraine. The report said that US foreign policy in the coming years was likely to be shaped by Washington’s bipolar contest with Beijing.
As for Nato, Trump’s second term would also involve enormous consequences. While a formal US withdrawal from the alliance was unlikely, the credibility of both Article 5, which states that an attack against one member “shall be considered an attack against them all”, and the US nuclear umbrella, were in doubt.
Among the respondents in this year’s Munich Security Index, 32 per cent indicated that they believed the US was still the dominant global superpower; while slightly more – 35 per cent – felt the world was dominated by both the US and China.
This year’s index was based on representative samples of 1,000 people from each G7 and Brics nation, excluding Russia.
According to the report, by engaging more selectively and prioritising the bipolar contest with China, the Trump administration could accelerate the multipolarisation of the international system as other actors take on greater responsibility for certain regions or policy issues.
It said that people in Kyiv, Taipei, Gaza, Tel Aviv and elsewhere would be watching anxiously for signs of whether the US’ active role in the world would contain or fuel global disorder.


Trump’s new Gilded Age a reminder of America’s painful past

US tariffs? China’s steel industry has far bigger problems than that

Risks or opportunities? China, Ukraine brace for Trump agenda at top security summit

China on edge after Trump makes overtures to North Korea and Iran

US-China relations

Donald Trump’s “America first” trade policy casts a shadow over Europe as nations prepare for the annual Munich Security Conference. Photo: Reuters

US set to unveil Trump plan to end Ukraine war

A Ukrainian self-propelled howitzer fires towards Russian positions in the Donetsk region in January. Photo: AP

Keith Kellogg speaks during the Republican National Convention broadcast from Washington in August 2020. Photo: Republican National Convention via Reuters

High-level EU-China talks to resume as top diplomats prepare to meet in Munich

Kaja Kallas of Estonia became the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs and security policy in December. Photo: Reuters

“We have entered a new era of harsh geostrategic competition,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the European Parliament on Wednesday. Photo: DPA

Eyeing China, Marco Rubio makes Central America his first trip abroad as top US diplomat

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is a long-time China hawk who has a history of engaging leaders in Latin America. Photo: Reuters

A demonstrator in Panama City on Wednesday holds a sign to protest Rubio’s impending visit. Photo: AFP

Rubio has criticised Beijing’s account of his recent phone call with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Photo: AP

Trump’s America first trade policy: US-China 2020 import deal is again under scrutiny

US President Donald Trump and former Chinese vice-premier Liu He shake hands after signing the phase-one trade deal at the White House in 2020. A review of the deal during Trump’s second term may put pressure on China to fulfil its missed requirements. Photo: Reuters

US President Donald Trump and former Chinese vice-premier Liu He sign the phase-one trade deal at the White House in 2020. A review of the deal during Trump’s second term may put pressure on China to fulfil its missed requirements. Photo: Xinhua

By going soft on China on first day, Trump leaves room for deal making: Tsinghua’s Da Wei

US President Donald Trump holds up an executive order after signing it at an indoor presidential inauguration event in Washington on Monday. Photo: AP

Da Wei is director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. Photo: Tsinghua University

News

China

Diplomacy

Report ahead of Munich Security Conference reveals biggest worries for nations as leaders prepare to meet top Trump officials in Germany


Report ahead of Munich Security Conference reveals biggest worries for nations as leaders prepare to meet top Trump officials in Germany.
